Kenya’s latest inflation data reveals a paradox at the heart of the economy: food prices are easing month-on-month, yet consumers say life is still getting more expensive.

According to the March 2026 Consumer Price Index report by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), several staple items recorded price declines between February and March.

“The price of one kilogram of cabbage decreased, while maize grain lost dropped and spinach recorded a marginal reduction,” the report released on Tuesday, March 31, 2026.

But this apparent relief masks a deeper reality: prices remain significantly higher than a year ago, reinforcing what many households experience as relentless cost pressure.

For instance, maize prices fell by 2.4 per cent over the month, yet are still 8.8 per cent higher year-on-year. Cabbages dropped 3.8 per cent in March 2026 but remain up a staggering 33.8 per cent compared to 2025.

Even where relief exists, it is limited: cooking oil prices declined 2.4 per cent year-on-year, one of the few categories showing sustained easing.

KNBS captures this contradiction. While overall inflation stood at a moderate 4.4 per cent, food inflation remains elevated at 7.7 per cent, with the report acknowledging that price increases were primarily driven by food and non-alcoholic beverages.

This disconnect shows the growing gap between statistical inflation and what economists call psychological inflation, the lived experience of rising costs.

Consumers tend to remember peak prices and cumulative increases rather than short-term declines. A slight monthly drop does little to offset months or years of steady price hikes.

In practical terms, a household that adjusted its budget upwards in 2025 to cope with rising food costs is unlikely to feel relief from marginal price dips in 2026. Income growth has also lagged behind food inflation, compounding the pressure.

The result is a powerful narrative tension as prices are technically stabilising, but financially, households remain stretched

This then-versus-now dynamic is becoming central to Kenya’s economic story. It depicts how inflation is not just a number, but a lived experience shaped by memory, expectations, and purchasing power.

KNBS says taming inflation on paper is not enough. Until year-on-year food prices ease meaningfully, and incomes catch up, the perception of a high cost of living is likely to persist, regardless of what the monthly data shows.