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East Africa fuel supply outlook shifts as Dangote hits 700k barrels per day

East Africa fuel supply outlook shifts as Dangote hits 700k barrels per day
Africa’s richest person Aliko Dangote. PHOTO/@AfricanHub_/X

Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has increased its crude processing capacity to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) following a performance test conducted by Process Licensors, marking a new milestone in its operational expansion and output growth.

The refinery exceeded its installed nameplate capacity of 650,000 bpd, strengthening its position as a major global refining facility. The increase reflects ongoing adjustments in operations aimed at improving efficiency and scaling production levels across key refining units.

“Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has increased its crude oil processing capacity to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in a performance test conducted by the Process Licensors, marking a significant milestone in the refinery’s operational expansion and further cementing its position as the World’s Largest Single Train Petroleum Refinery,” read the statement in part.

Capacity increase and production performance

The performance test confirmed higher throughput levels, with the refinery now processing more crude oil than its original design capacity. The development comes as the facility continues to ramp up production of petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and other refined petroleum products since commencing operations in 2024.

Vice-President for Oil and Gas at Dangote Industries Limited, Devakumar Edwin, said the expansion is part of a broader production strategy targeting 1.4 million bpd within 30 months. The refinery remains the world’s largest single-train petroleum processing facility.

Dangote Group X post. PHOTO/A screengrab by PD Digital@DangoteGroup/X

The refinery has expanded its export reach to multiple markets, supplying refined products to countries in Africa, Europe, the United States and parts of the Middle East. It has also increased shipments of jet fuel, including exports recorded in April, according to industry data cited by S&P Global Commodities.

Regional fuel supply implications

East Africa continues to rely heavily on imported refined petroleum products, with supply mainly sourced from the Middle East. The increased output from the Dangote Refinery introduces additional supply capacity within the continent, with potential implications for regional fuel trade flows and import sourcing patterns.

The refinery’s expansion is taking place alongside broader industrial developments linked to Dangote Industries. In Ethiopia, the group is involved in a Ksh323 billion fertiliser plant project in Gode, Somali region, developed in partnership with Ethiopian Investment Holdings. The facility is expected to produce about 3 million metric tonnes of urea annually from 2029.

The group has also secured a Ksh543 billion gas supply agreement with China’s GCL Group to support fertiliser production operations in Ethiopia.

Kenya refinery proposal and investment plans

Dangote Industries is also pursuing plans for a proposed refinery project in Kenya valued between Ksh1.93 trillion and Ksh2.19 trillion. The facility, with a projected capacity of 650,000 bpd, is being considered for Mombasa due to its port capacity and fuel consumption levels.

Discussions around the project have included engagements with Kenyan authorities. The proposal forms part of broader plans to expand refining capacity across East Africa and reduce reliance on imported petroleum products.

The potential investment is expected to influence regional fuel supply structures, depending on final implementation decisions and infrastructure development outcomes across participating countries.

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