Kenyan motorists could be in line for lower fuel prices in the coming weeks as global crude oil prices continue to decline.

The latest Weekly Bulletin by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows that Murban crude oil prices fell to Ksh8,789.74 (USD 67.99) per barrel in the week ending July 2, 2026, down from Ksh8,920.32 (USD 69.00) the previous week as geopolitical tensions eased following a preliminary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.

The CBK attributes the decline to improving market sentiment and easing supply concerns.

“Murban crude oil prices fell to USD 67.99 per barrel from USD 69.00 per barrel a week earlier,” CBK noted.

Global oil prices

The drop in global oil prices has already started filtering through the Kenyan economy.

According to the CBK, inflation eased to 6.4 per cent in June 2026, from 6.7 per cent in May 2026, partly due to moderating energy and transport costs.

Core inflation also edged down to 3.1 per cent, while non-core inflation declined to 15.1 per cent, supported by lower energy prices and easing food costs.

“Overall inflation eased to 6.4 per cent in June 2026 from 6.7 per cent in May 2026, reflecting a moderation in the impact of global oil prices and domestic food prices. Core inflation declined marginally to 3.1 per cent from 3.2 per cent in May 2026, driven by a decline in prices of select processed food items.”

What you need to understand

The latest developments come just days after EPRA explained why Kenyan consumers had not immediately benefited from falling global oil prices.

The regulator said local pump prices are determined by the landed cost of petroleum products imported several weeks earlier, meaning changes in international crude prices take time to be reflected in the domestic market.

Speaking during an interview on Wednesday, July 1, 2026, EPRA Petroleum and Gas Director Edward Kinyua said although international oil prices have started falling following a truce in the Middle East, the fuel currently being sold in Kenya was procured weeks earlier when global prices were significantly higher.

“The supply and pricing of fuel are highly dependent on the geopolitical environment. This was one of the worst crises. But I am happy to note that there is a truce and the global oil prices are dropping,” Kinyua said.

Kinyua said the delay in passing on lower global prices is due to the time required to refine, ship and deliver fuel to Kenya.

“The international oil prices have dropped, but remember that the barrel has to go into a refining process and then the logistics of ordering, loading, voyage and discharging,” he disclosed.

“Between now and when the barrel arrives in Mombasa, it takes between 30 and 45 days. That is why it may not be immediately reflected at the pump because whatever we have now was ordered 30 days before,” Kinyua explained.