As Brazil, this year’s United Nations annual climate summit host, faces criticism for its continued interest in oil production, a leading development expert has come to the country’s defence.

“Brazil has been portrayed by the media, activists and other commentators as either angel or devil over its interest in oil production – but with development needs high, it can’t be expected to forgo its biggest commodity overnight,” argues Ana Yang, the director of the Environment and Society Centre at Chatham House.

Writing in Climate Home News, the award-winning independent digital publication covering the international politics of the climate crisis, Yang notes that on one hand, Brazil is touted as a climate champion, the potential saviour of multilateralism and a progressive host of the next UN climate talks. The country houses 60 per cent of the Amazon rainforest and an enormous wealth of biodiversity.

“On the other, the fifth largest and seventh-most populous country in the world is demonised as hypocritical for pursuing oil exploration and production, investing in agriculture as a key export industry – and most likely – building new road on the outskirts of the north-eastern city of Belém,” she adds.

Brazil has been accused of hypocrisy on climate action, especially after President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva announced more federal investments for COP30 in Belém, the city in the Amazon Forest that will host the summit in November.

The Brazilian, working and living in London, says this is a deeply familiar and frustrating story of a developing nation that cannot be trusted to act in its own interests on climate change, nor in those of the world.

Short-sighted

“It is a story that holds low and middle-income countries to different standards from rich ones, and denies them the same rights and routes to development, Yang argues”.

Reiterating that oil production supports development, Yang says recent criticism of Brazil’s decision to join the oil producers club, the Oil Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC+), and of President Lula’s support for a new oil project typify a gleeful tendency to attack pragmatic leadership and deny political complexity… criticism which, she adds, is not only condescending, but counterproductive and short-sighted.

Crude oil is Brazil’s main export commodity, with China being its main customer. By joining OPEC+ Brazil – with only 4 per cent of global oil production and less than 2 per cent of global trade oil – gets to be part of the club of countries that dictates oil prices. Joining OPEC+ is a geopolitical move by a middle power designed to support commercial interests and trade diversification.

Yang says that of course, rapid decarbonisation is imperative if the world is to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as per the Paris Agreement. Just as other countries scramble to balance climate goals against other policy objectives, including the opportunities of investment in fossil fuels, or provision of infrastructure, so too should Brazil be able to determine its own path to net-zero.

“Brazil, a country at the forefront of the climate crisis, whose wealth is concentrated in its abundant natural resources, knows full well the importance of a managed fossil-fuel phase-out,” she adds, saying the climate transition and decarbonisation is owned at the highest political level, that Brazil already generates 90 per cent of its electricity from renewable resources, and has per capita emissions well below the global average.

“But President Lula was also elected on a promise of addressing the deep inequality, poverty, hunger and other challenges affecting the Brazilian population. Oil production and exploration contribute to the national coffers and help pay for the national health service, anti-poverty initiatives, and climate adaptation actions”.

The director insists that if there is a genuine desire to support and encourage progress, we cannot expect Brazil to forgo its biggest commodity overnight.

“Instead, we need an approach which acknowledges that policy-making is a game of balancing competing demands,” she reiterates.

Noting that there is no one-size-fits-all path to decarbonisation, Yang says that, indeed, the truth is that, with three quarters of its emissions coming from deforestation and agriculture, Brazil’s decarbonisation challenge lies less in oil production and more in land use.

To effect an equitable and low-carbon transition, the country will need to move away from a deforestation-based agriculture production model, cut methane from cattle herds and reduce reliance on fertiliser.

Its farmers, from large to micro producers, will need to shift to integrated and management approaches that enable the protection of nature. The country will also need to continue to expand renewable energy capabilities while ensuring benefits are shared with local communities, and invested in climate adaptation.

Offering solutions

As for the international community, supporting Brazil as COP30 host means being inclusive rather than prescriptive. It means engaging the COP30 presidency on areas of mutual interest and bringing the private sector along.

It means offering solutions for climate and natural finance, focusing on the link with inequality, and aligning net-zero target dates with Lula’s own plans. It also means rich countries keeping their promises on climate finance, according to Yang.

“There are so many expectations around Brazil’s presidency of COP30, some unrealistic. But there are clear opportunities to make progress on climate finance, on emissions reduction targets and on nature. With the right sort of engagement from the international community and the private sector, Brazil will be able to start delivering on its climate promises, setting an example for others to follow,” she says.

At its best, Yang adds, COP30 could kick off a decade of action, where the economic opportunities of the energy transition are turned into reality, and the polarised narrative of Growth vs Climate action is consigned to history. To realise this potential Brazil needs constructive partners who understand that decarbonisation is not a one-size-fits-all policy.

“In a context of heightened geopolitical instability and competing fiscal pressures, collaboration between coalitions of the willing, characterised by mutual respect, must be at the heart of climate action in 2025 and beyond”.

Frontline critics of Brazil for its continued interest in oil production, in an article in InfoAmazonia, say the Amazon rainforest has emerged as the new global oil frontier.

Fossil fuel industry

They claim that half a century of oil drilling has left the world’s largest rainforest scarred by deforestation and pollution, and that now it is bracing for a new wave of fossil fuel extraction. The Amazon now holds nearly one-fifth of the world’s recently discovered oil and natural gas reserves – the new global frontier for the fossil fuel industry.

Almost 20 per cent of global reserves identified between 2022 and 2024 are located in the region, primarily offshore along South America’s northern coast between Guyana and Suriname. This wealth has sparked increasing international interest from oil companies and neighbouring countries like Brazil, which is looking to exploit its own coastal resources.

In total, the Amazon region and adjacent oil blocks accounts for 5.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of around 25 billion discovered during this period, a large share of the world’s recent oil and gas discoveries, according to the Global Energy Monitor.

However, Gregor Clark, the Monitor’s Energy Portal for Latin America lead, says this expansion is “inconsistent with international emissions targets and portends significant environmental and social consequences, both globally and locally”.