The government has activated a nationwide contingency plan ahead of the forecast moderate-to-strong El Niño rains expected later in 2026, with Cabinet establishing a special committee to coordinate preparedness and response efforts aimed at minimising the impact of potential flooding and other weather-related disasters.

The decision was reached during a Cabinet meeting chaired by President William Ruto at State House, Nairobi, on Tuesday, June 30, 2026.

In a Cabinet dispatch, the government said the newly formed Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee on El Niño Preparedness and Response, to be chaired by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, will spearhead the country’s preparedness measures.

“To strengthen national preparedness against climate-related disasters, Cabinet established an Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee on El Niño Preparedness and Response, chaired by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, to oversee preparations for the forecast moderate-to-strong El Niño rains expected later this year,” the Cabinet said.

Immediate operation

The committee has been directed to immediately operationalise a National El Niño Contingency Plan covering key interventions designed to protect lives, livelihoods and infrastructure before the onset of the rains.

According to the Cabinet, “The committee will immediately activate a National El Niño Contingency Plan covering flood mitigation, evacuation and shelter arrangements, drainage clearance, reinforcement of vulnerable roads and bridges, pre-positioning of emergency equipment and medical supplies, farmer advisories, and a contingency fund for relief, recovery and rehabilitation.”

WMO warns on June-August El Niño

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that there is an 80 per cent probability of El Niño conditions developing between June and August 2026, with the phenomenon likely to persist into November at moderate to strong intensity.

According to the WMO, El Niño conditions are associated with significant disruptions in global weather systems, including increased temperatures and altered rainfall patterns.

For East Africa, including Kenya, forecasts indicate wetter-than-normal conditions, raising the risk of intensified flooding, landslides, crop destruction, and displacement in vulnerable regions.

“A new WMO El Niño/La Niña Update indicates an 80 per cent likelihood of an El Niño event during June-August 2026,” WMO stated.

The World Meteorological Organisation further notes that El Niño conditions can contribute to extreme weather variability, increasing the likelihood of both heavy rainfall and flooding in some regions while causing dry conditions in others.