The recent attempts to remove Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna from the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) secretary-general position over his stance on the party’s direction ahead of the 2027 elections and his opposition to the party’s top leadership, led by Oburu Odinga, have reopened old wounds reminiscent of 2018.

At that time, ODM was under a similar political umbrella with Moses Wetang’ula’s FORD-Kenya party, when Wetang’ula was stripped of the Senate minority leader position on March 15, 2018, and the position was handed over to the then Siaya senator James Orengo (now Siaya County governor)

It appears that ODM may be repeating the same mistake it made in the past, a blunder that arguably contributed to its loss in the 2022 general elections.

After Wetang’ula’s removal, the then Bungoma senator publicly expressed outrage, accusing ODM of intimidating other coalition partners in the National Super Alliance (NASA), a coalition that was instrumental in the 2017 Raila Odinga presidential contest.

Wetang’ula’s lamentation

Wetang’ula, in a passionate address on the Senate floor, just like Sifuna is doing now, lamented that he was never given a chance to defend himself or explain his side to the coalition before his ouster.

Instead, he only received messages and threats preceding his removal. He warned ODM that stripping him of the position, despite his contribution to NASA’s vote tally, “would be messy and unhealthy, with a lot of casualties”, a prediction that proved accurate in 2022.

Following his fallout with NASA and ODM officials, Wetang’ula shifted allegiance and began supporting the then Deputy President William Ruto in his presidential bid. His move quickly influenced his home county of Bungoma, which had interpreted Wetang’ula’s ODM removal as an attack on his Bukusu community, which had overwhelmingly supported ODM in previous elections.

Raila’s Bungoma fallout

Opinion polls began showing growing support for Kenya Kwanza in the region, which became noticeable to the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Even during campaign visits to Bungoma, Raila openly scolded locals for abandoning him by telling them, “Shame on you, Bungoma,” yet the trend was irreversible.

At the 2022 polls, over 70 per cent of Bungoma’s votes went to Ruto, with the majority of MPs aligning with Kenya Kwanza, cementing Wetang’ula’s political influence and validating his warning that ODM’s mishandling of loyal allies could backfire and would come with casualties.

Analysts later observed that Ruto’s slim victory margin of around 200,000 votes was largely influenced by the shift in Bungoma, underscoring how pivotal Wetang’ula’s support was to Raila in 2017 and that if he had not been mishandled, Raila could have won the 2022 elections.

Sifuna’s ODM ouster

Today, history seems poised to repeat itself with Sifuna. Following his attempted ouster, Sifuna has retreated to his home region in Western Kenya, where he is mobilising support alongside other ODM rebels, including Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi.

Political pundit Herman Manyora has warned that the Mulembe region, a long-standing ODM stronghold, could soon drift away from the party following the attempted ouster of Sifuna and Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, with the fate of Ososti possibly mirroring that of Sifuna.

The growing public sympathy for Sifuna should not be underestimated.

His ability to rally support and galvanise the Western Kenya electorate could deal a serious dent to ODM’s fortunes in the 2027 elections.

ODM faces a delicate moment: mishandling loyal members now, as it did with Wetang’ula

Sifuna has since received a reprieve after the Political Parties Dispute Tribunal (PPDT) partly reinstated him as ODM secretary general, awaiting full determination.