A survey by research firm TIFA has ranked government interference and trust issues as the issues Kenyans are most concerned about regarding the 2027 elections.

According to the released statistic, nearly half of all Kenyans who expressed a total lack of confidence in the integrity of the 2027 elections cited either political interference resulting in corruption of the electoral process or a lack of trust in the IEBC (which could largely amount to the same thing; 45% and 34%, respectively).

Interference

45 per cent expressed a lack of belief in the 2027 elections, with political interference either through the government’s attempts to manipulate or corrupt the electoral process.

Meanwhile, 34 per cent cited their concerns solely on the electoral body’s capacity to deliver. Their concerns stemmed from a lack of trust with the IEBC as an institution and also its personnel, from the chair, Erastus Ethekon, to the newly appointed commissioners.

Also mentioned, though at far lower levels, were violence/insecurity and technology failures (13% and 3%, respectively).

The following comes amid a revelation that the electoral umpire could be facing a looming confidence crisis.

According to TIFA, only 18 per cent of Kenyans now say they are “very confident” in the commission, a sharp decline from 58 per cent recorded in August 2022.

The findings further state that 26 per cent of Kenyans are only “somewhat confident” in the commission, while nearly half, 48 per cent, say they are not confident at all. Another 8 per cent remain undecided.

Dwindling trend

The downward trend in trust has been consistent since the last election. In May 2025, confidence had already dropped to 20 per cent, and it has now slid further to 18 per cent in September.

At the same time, Kenyans expressing complete distrust in the IEBC surged from just 10 per cent in August 2022 to 50 per cent in May 2025, before slightly easing to 48 per cent this month.

TIFA, in its statement, warned that the figures send a clear warning signal: “With less than 1 in 5 Kenyans strongly trusting IEBC, the institution faces a legitimacy test. High distrust levels could fuel skepticism about the fairness, transparency, and credibility of the 2027 elections. Declining public confidence highlights the urgent need to restore trust in the electoral body.