Following Suba South MP Caroli Omondi’s announcement that the Linda Mwananchi movement is exploring ways of supporting one of the United Opposition parties in the Ol Kalou by-election to help them win the mini-poll and establish a physical presence in the constituency.

The move could potentially turn the tide in favour of the opposition candidate and complicate matters for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Caroli Omondi emphasised that Ol Kalou is a must-win contest for the opposition. He noted that the Linda Mwananchi movement, which has been taking the country by storm with its principals drawing huge crowds in recent rallies, is prepared to camp in the constituency and drum up support for the opposition candidate.

“Sasa tunapanga kushirikiana na wenzetu kule Ol Kalou. Tunataka mmoja wetu ashinde hio kiti na kura kubwa sana natutakuwa huko hata.”

If the movement succeeds in transferring even a fraction of the momentum witnessed in its rallies to Ol Kalou, it could spell trouble for UDA candidate Samuel Muchina.

The Suba South MP, who also doubles as the Azimio secretary general, had earlier declared that there would be no escape route for the government despite its impressive performance in previous by-elections. According to Omondi, most of those victories were marred by misuse of state resources, unfairness, and irregularities, but he maintains that the same will not happen in Ol Kalou, boldly declaring, “Let’s meet in Ol Kalou.”

United Opposition’s ol-kalou approach

The major question, however, remains which candidate Linda Mwananchi will support. The United Opposition has already announced that it will settle on one candidate through scientific opinion polling.

With Democracy for Citizens (DCP) Deputy Party Leader Cleophas Malala, who recently stated that Jubilee and PLP had withdrawn their candidates in favour of Samuel Kamau Waweru and that he would be the one flying the opposition flag.

If the movement throws its weight behind the candidate eventually selected by the opposition, that candidate could benefit from the growing influence and visibility that Linda Mwananchi has built over the past few months.

Amisi backs PRM candidate

On the other side is Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, an integral member of the Linda Mwananchi movement, who, despite denying links to the People’s Renaissance Movement (PRM), has spent the last three days campaigning in the constituency while openly wearing PRM party attire and drumming up support for the party’s candidate, Timothy Kariuki

who attracted national attention after presenting his nomination papers while riding a donkey. This now presents Linda Mwananchi with a delicate balancing act. Should the movement back the DCP candidate, it would reinforce the opposition’s strategy of rallying behind a single candidate. However, should it throw its weight behind Timothy Kariuki, questions would arise about whether PRM is the political vehicle the movement intends to embrace heading into 2027.

The Ol Kalou by-election, occasioned by the death of former MP David Kiaraho, has now gained significant momentum, with the DCP facing what many see as its first major political test in the Mt Kenya region. The party hopes to demonstrate that it commands substantial support in the region as it squares off against UDA’s Samuel Muchina.

Kioni backs the DCP.

Recent remarks by Jubilee Deputy Party Leader Jeremiah Kioni have further fuelled speculation. Despite Jubilee having a candidate in the race, Kioni appeared to lean toward the DCP candidate, saying that if the DCP thinks that by winning the Ol Kalou seat they will send a huge political message, then they should be allowed to proceed. He further argued that by-elections are difficult to win against a government that possesses the resources and machinery to influence the contest.

Yet the entry of Linda Mwananchi into the race may alter that equation. The movement has demonstrated an ability to attract crowds and generate political excitement in different parts of the country. Whether that popularity can be translated into votes in Ol Kalou remains to be seen, but its involvement has undoubtedly added a new dynamic to the contest.

Linda Mwananchis’s political puzzle

As the campaigns intensify, the question remains whether Linda Mwananchi’s support for the opposition will be enough to dent UDA’s chances in a constituency where the ruling party is seeking to gain inroads. The answer could determine not only the outcome of the by-election but also the political significance of the movement ahead of the 2027 general election.