ODM’s sweeping victories in Thursday’s parliamentary by-elections have reaffirmed the party’s dominance in its traditional bastions while sending an unmistakable warning to internal dissenters.

The win has sent an unmistakable message to party rebels led by Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna: ODM remains an unbreakable fortress in its Nyanza and Coast strongholds, and any attempt to quit or undermine the party from within risks political suicide ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The party clinched the Magarini, Kasipul, and Ugunja seats by commanding margins, underscoring the strength of its grassroots mobilisation and the cost of rebellion within its ranks.

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Harrison Garama Kombe secured Magarini with 17,909 votes against Stanley Kenga’s 8,907. In Kasipul, Boyd Were garnered 16,819 votes, doubling independent Philip Nashon Aroko’s 8,476. Moses Omondi’s 9,227 votes in Ugunja dwarfed Orodi Odhiambo’s 1,819.

ODM leader Oburu Oginga celebrated the victories on X, saying, “Congratulations to our ODM candidates Moses Omondi (Ugunja), Boyd Were (Kasipul), and Harrison Kombe (Magarini) for your great and well-deserved by-election victories. Your wins are a show of the trust and confidence the people have placed in your leadership and @TheODMparty.”

The results, in contrast to UDA’s own successes in Malava, Banissa, Baringo, and Mbeere North, highlight a deeper truth: ODM thrives on discipline and unified political organisation.

A resounding message to ODM’s internal critics

The by-elections come at a time when some of the party’s most visible figures, including Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, have increasingly challenged ODM’s leadership and direction. Thursday’s results appear to undercut their defiant posture.

Owino has spent months positioning himself as an alternative power centre within ODM, escalating confrontations with the leadership.

During ODM’s 20th anniversary on November 15, he declared, “Nimetosha kuwa party leader!” and threatened mass action while accusing party leaders of sidelining him.

His push for control has unfolded alongside provocative national pronouncements, such as his October 21 call for the dissolution of President William Ruto’s Cabinet.

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That move triggered internal backlash, with Peter Kaluma warning him, “Don’t fight our friend to please our enemy.”

Owino’s persistent absences from joint ODM-UDA parliamentary meetings and his proximity to the Kenya Moja Movement—a coalition of young ODM and UDA dissidents—signal a growing rift. Allies like Alinur Mohamed have defended him, noting on October 29, “ODM Party needs Babu Owino and Edwin Sifuna. Any attempt to throw them out will face severe consequences.”

But Thursday’s results tell a different story: ODM voters reward loyalty, not independence. In Nyanza, Owino’s core support base, voters delivered landslide wins to party loyalists. Any attempt to break away would leave him exposed.

Sifuna’s balancing act becomes riskier

The political calculations facing Edwin Sifuna are no less complex. As Secretary-General, Sifuna must maintain party cohesion even as his actions raise eyebrows. Despite ODM’s broad-based pact endorsing UDA’s David Ndakwa in Malava, Sifuna hosted DAP-K’s Seth Panyako at his Bungoma home on November 22 while accompanied by ODM MPs.

Though the gathering was a condolence visit, it drew speculation online. Claims circulated that Sifuna was backing Panyako, amplified by Caleb Amisi’s call urging ODM to support the DAP-K candidate as a gesture of reciprocity.

Yet IEBC ultimately declared UDA’s Ndakwa winner. Whether or not Sifuna signaled support, his proximity to rival candidates muddied ODM’s messaging at a sensitive moment.

Post-election, Sifuna condemned the violence witnessed in some areas, describing the day as “one of the bloodiest election days.” While this aligns with the party’s condemnation of electoral chaos, it also risks deepening internal questions about his positioning at a time when unity is paramount.

Rebels face stark choices ahead of 2027

ODM’s latest by-election performance demonstrates that its strength does not lie in individual star power but in the party’s machinery. Kombe’s 17,909 votes in Magarini, reclaiming a seat lost after a 2024 Supreme Court nullification, reflect institutional loyalty.

Omondi’s near-80 percent share in Ugunja reinforces that splinter movements have little oxygen in regions where ODM remains culturally entrenched.

For Owino and Sifuna, the path to 2027 now narrows. Remaining within ODM demands alignment; breaking away threatens political isolation.

As the party regroups, Thursday’s results send a message that the grassroots are firmly tied to the orange flag, and those drifting away may soon find themselves without a constituency to return to.