Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the fastest-rising opposition figure in the race towards the 2027 general election, according to the latest Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) opinion poll, even as former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka registered declining support.

The survey, released on Friday, July 24, 2026, shows President William Ruto maintaining a steady lead in the hypothetical presidential race with 24 per cent support, unchanged from May 2026, despite the opposition vote remaining split among several contenders.

Sifuna, who had virtually no measurable support in 2025, has climbed to 15 per cent in June 2026, marking the sharpest growth among opposition politicians. TIFA said the rise positions him among the leading challengers to Ruto ahead of the 2027 polls.

“Although opposition support remains fragmented, Sifuna has recorded the fastest rise among opposition figures, increasing from virtually no support in 2025 to 15 per cent in June 2026,” the pollster noted.

How opposition figures are performing

The survey indicates that Kalonzo Musyoka’s popularity has steadily declined after peaking at 25 per cent in November 2025. His support now stands at 13 per cent, a drop of six percentage points from May 2026 when he polled 19 per cent.

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, who previously led opposition hopefuls, also continued to lose ground. His support has fallen from a high of 32 per cent in September 2025 to 14 per cent in both May and June 2026.

Similarly, Gachagua’s backing has weakened after reaching 9 per cent in May 2026. The latest poll places him at 7 per cent in June.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, who had previously registered 8 per cent support in November 2025, remained largely stagnant at 2 per cent in June 2026.

President Ruto’s improvement

The findings suggest that while several opposition leaders continue to command pockets of support, none has emerged as a clear alternative capable of consolidating anti-Ruto voters.

Meanwhile, President Ruto’s support has grown from 18 per cent in August 2022 to 24 per cent in both May and June 2026, with TIFA noting that his backing has stabilised over the past two survey waves.

The poll also highlights a sizeable bloc of undecided voters. About 20 per cent of respondents said they were yet to decide whom they would support in the presidential election, although that figure has declined from 28 per cent recorded in August 2022.

Support for other unnamed candidates also dropped from 8 per cent in August 2025 to 2 per cent in June 2026, reflecting an increasingly competitive contest among the leading political figures.