Nairobi senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the opposition’s most preferred presidential candidate ahead of the 2027 general election, according to the latest Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) survey.

The poll, released on Friday, July 24, 2026, shows that Sifuna has overtaken other opposition leaders to become President William Ruto’s strongest challenger among opposition figures.

“Although opposition support remains fragmented, Sifuna has recorded the fastest rise among opposition figures, increasing from virtually no support in 2025 to 15% in June 2026, positioning him among the leading opposition contenders,” a TIFA survey shows.

2027 presidential race

According to the survey, released on Friday, July 24, 2026, President William Ruto remains the overall frontrunner with 24 per cent support, followed by Edwin Sifuna at 15 per cent. Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i ranks third with 14 per cent, while Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka follows with 13 per cent.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua garnered 2 per cent, with Embakasi East MP Babu Owino attracting 1 per cent support. Other candidates account for 2 per cent, while 20 per cent of respondents remain undecided.

The survey highlights Sifuna’s rapid rise in national politics, noting that he has recorded the fastest growth among opposition leaders over the past year.

According to TIFA, Sifuna has moved from virtually no measurable support in 2025 to 15 per cent in June 2026, positioning him among the country’s leading opposition contenders.

The poll also shows that although Ruto continues to lead, opposition support remains fragmented across several candidates, potentially complicating efforts to mount a united challenge against the incumbent.

Sifuna’s popularity

Among ODM supporters, 44 per cent back Sifuna as their preferred presidential candidate, while 20 per cent would support President Ruto and 13 per cent remain undecided.

UDA supporters remain overwhelmingly behind President Ruto, while Wiper supporters show strong loyalty to Kalonzo Musyoka. Among DCP supporters, Rigathi Gachagua enjoys the highest backing within his party’s base.

“ODM supporters: most of them back Sifuna, while 20% would support Ruto and 13% remain undecided.”

TIFA concluded that while Ruto maintains an early advantage, Sifuna’s rapid rise signals changing political dynamics within the opposition as preparations for the 2027 General Election gather pace.