The Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) poll has found that a plurality of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) supporters would prefer Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as the presidential flagbearer in the 2027 general election.

According to the survey released on Friday, July 24, 2026, 44 per cent of ODM supporters named Sifuna as their preferred presidential candidate, placing him well ahead of President William Ruto, who was the choice of 20 per cent.

“ODM supporters: most of them back Sifuna, while 20 per cent would support Ruto and 13 per cent remain undecided,” the poll indicated.

How other leaders ranked

The survey ranked Jubilee deputy party leader Fred Matiang’i third with nine per cent, while Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and the Wiper Patriotic Front leader, Kalonzo Musyoka, were tied at four per cent each.

Former Chief Justice David Maraga received two per cent, while Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua garnered one per cent support.

An additional 13 per cent of ODM supporters said they were undecided on who should carry the party’s presidential flag in 2027.

TIFA noted that the findings indicate Sifuna currently enjoys the strongest backing within ODM, although the party’s support base appears less consolidated compared to some rival political formations.

Loyalty within other parties

The poll also found that UDA, Wiper and Jubilee supporters largely remain loyal to their respective leading figures, with President Ruto, Kalonzo Musyoka and Matiang’i commanding overwhelming support within their party bases.

The findings suggest Sifuna currently enjoys the strongest backing within the ODM base, reinforcing his growing profile as one of the party’s most influential leaders ahead of the 2027 race.

The survey also highlighted strong party loyalty across Kenya’s major political formations.

Among UDA supporters, President Ruto commanded overwhelming backing, with 84 per cent saying they would support his re-election bid. Kalonzo Musyoka followed distantly with three per cent, while Sifuna, Matiang’i and Gachagua each received two per cent. Five per cent of UDA supporters remained undecided.

Within the DCP camp, party leader Rigathi Gachagua led with 44 per cent support. Kalonzo emerged second with 19 per cent, followed by Matiang’i at 15 per cent. Sifuna garnered three per cent, while Babu Owino and Ruto each received two per cent. Thirteen per cent of DCP supporters were undecided.

Matiang’i leads Jubilee

In Jubilee, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i dominated with 73 per cent support. Ruto was backed by six per cent, while Sifuna and Kalonzo each received four per cent. Gachagua received three per cent, with eight per cent remaining undecided.

Among Wiper supporters, Kalonzo Musyoka enjoyed the highest level of internal support, with 90 per cent identifying him as their preferred presidential candidate. Ruto followed with three per cent, while Sifuna received two per cent. Matiang’i and Babu Owino each polled one per cent, with only two per cent of respondents undecided.