President William Ruto remains Kenya’s most preferred presidential candidate ahead of the 2027 general election, according to the latest opinion poll released by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA). The survey indicates that Ruto has maintained a steady lead over a fragmented opposition, with his support standing at 24 per cent in both May and June 2026.

The findings released by the TIFA survey on Friday, July 24, 2026, show that while opposition figures continue to command support individually, none have managed to surpass the president’s rating. TIFA noted that Ruto’s support has remained relatively stable over the past year, despite political realignments and increased activity by opposition leaders.

“Although opposition support remains fragmented, Sifuna has recorded the fastest rise among opposition figures, increasing from virtually no support in 2025 to 15% in June 2026, positioning him among the leading opposition contenders,” the poll stated.

Matiang’i and Kalonzo lose ground

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, who had emerged as the leading opposition figure after returning to active politics, recorded a significant decline. His support dropped from a peak of 32 per cent in August 2025 to 14 per cent in June 2026.

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka also registered declining popularity. After peaking at 25 per cent in November 2025, his support fell to 13 per cent in the latest survey.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua reached his highest support level of 9 per cent in May 2026 before slipping to 7 per cent in June. Meanwhile, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna emerged as the fastest-rising opposition politician, climbing from virtually no measurable support in 2025 to 15 per cent in June 2026.

Sifuna: Fastest-rising opposition figure

TIFA observed that Sifuna’s steady rise has positioned him among the leading opposition contenders, even as support for the opposition remains divided across several candidates.

The poll also found that former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko, popularly known as Babu, remained largely dormant in the race, with his support declining from 8 per cent in August 2025 to just 2 per cent in June 2026.

Yet to decide

Despite Ruto’s lead, the survey revealed that a substantial proportion of Kenyans are yet to settle on a preferred candidate. About 20 per cent of respondents said they were still undecided in June 2026, down from 28 per cent in August 2025, suggesting the race remains fluid as political alliances continue to evolve ahead of the 2027 election.

The latest findings are likely to intensify political competition, with opposition leaders expected to explore coalition arrangements in an effort to consolidate support and mount a stronger challenge against President Ruto in the run-up to the next general election.