The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) have recorded a decline in public support since the 2022 General Election, according to the latest poll by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA), with the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) emerging as the closest challenger to the country’s two dominant political parties.

The survey, whose findings were released on Friday, July 24, 2026, indicates that Kenya’s political landscape is becoming increasingly competitive as new political formations gain ground ahead of the 2027 General Election.

“Support for ODM and UDA has declined significantly since the 2022 general election, while DCP is emerging as a challenger, and nearly one-third of voters remain undecided,” TIFA said.

Political parties’ popularity

According to the poll, ODM remains the country’s most popular political party with 20 per cent support, narrowly ahead of President William Ruto’s UDA, which stands at 17 per cent. DCP, led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, has climbed to 12 per cent, making it the third most popular party nationally.

Jubilee follows at 10 per cent, while Wiper enjoys 7 per cent support. DAP-K attracted 1 per cent, with 5 per cent supporting other parties. Notably, 28 percent of respondents said they do not support any political party, while 2 per cent gave no response.

ODM and UDA support

TIFA noted that support for both ODM and UDA has declined significantly compared to their standing after the 2022 elections, while DCP has quickly established itself as a major player in the country’s political landscape. The pollster also observed that nearly one-third of Kenyans remain politically undecided, leaving the race ahead of 2027 wide open.

The survey further shows that political party support remains heavily influenced by regional strongholds. ODM enjoys its highest support in Nyanza, where it commands 47 per cent, while UDA is strongest in Northern Kenya with 48 per cent support and also performs strongly in Central Rift. DCP’s biggest base is Mt Kenya, where it records 35 per cent support, reflecting Gachagua’s continued influence in the region.

Comparing results over the past year, TIFA found that party support has remained relatively stable, although DCP’s popularity declined slightly from 16 per cent in May 2026 to 12 per cent in June 2026. During the same period, ODM gained modestly compared to UDA, while the proportion of respondents who do not support any political party increased from 24 per cent to 28 per cent.

Party membership

The survey also examined party membership and found that among supporters of the five largest political parties, 44 per cent said they were registered members of the parties they support. UDA had the highest proportion of registered members among its supporters at 59 per cent, followed by ODM at 45 per cent, Wiper at 41 per cent, Jubilee at 38 per cent, and DCP at 34 per cent.

According to TIFA, the findings point to an increasingly competitive political environment heading into the 2027 General Election, with established parties facing growing competition while a significant portion of voters remain unattached to any political formation.