Despite not holding a formal position in the government Azimio leader Raila Odinga has strategically positioned himself and is pulling strings that determine key appointments.

The story of Raila’s influence in President Ruto’s government could be a tale of political manoeuvring, power plays and to some extent, a coup d’etat for a civilian rejected by voters during the last General Election to play a central role in appointment of Cabinet Secretaries and Principal Secretaries.

First, after the Gen-Z protests, Raila entered into a deal with President Ruto that saw five of his lieutenants Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), Hassan Joho ( Blue Economy), John Mbadi (National) Treasury), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives and MSMEs) and Beatrice Askul (East African Community) appointed to the “broad-based” government.

Yesterday, seven months later, Raila manoeuvred to have several of his allies, among them former ODM director of elections Judith Pereno and Dr Ouma Oluga appointed PSs.

Sources intimated to the People Daily that Raila and his allies are now eyeing more top government positions after the Thursday’s purge that saw his men and women bag majority of the coveted Principal Secretaries’ positions created.

In what is a reminiscent of an Arab proverb that if a camel is allowed to get its nose inside a tent, it would be quite impossible to stop it from pushing through its entire body, the Opposition Chief has capitalized on last year’s Gen Z protests to build rapport with President Ruto, join and control a sizeable size in government.

Political analyst Javas Bigambo says the Thursday reshuffle was a clear testimony to Raila’s growing influence in government, given the fact that only persons associated with him were appointed PS.

Nobody outside Raila’s turf was appointed as a PS, which is a clear testimony that besides President Ruto, the only other person who has a say on who can serve in government is the ODM leader,” Bigambo told the People Daily by telephone.

Bigambo also adds that the appointment of former Nyeri Deputy Governor Caroline Karugu, the only person from Central to have been appointed a PS, sends signals that only Raila can be used by Mt Kenya as a gateway to government.

“That was a signal meant to tell the people of Mt Kenya that former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua cannot assist them with them. Their only ambassador between them and Dr Ruto is Raila,” Bigambo says.

Raila who emerged second in 2022 presidential vote with Supreme Court upholding the IEBC position that he lost, has become a major player in Ruto’s administration, with his ODM party now working with the ruling Kenyan Kwanza coalition.

Raila started by influencing a shuffle in Executive that saw his trusted allies take plum Cabinet slots including the National Treasury, Energy and Co-operatives Development.

The Opposition chief’s camaraderie with Ruto has also resulted in his men and women taking over the leadership of key parliamentary committees, with allies of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua being shown the door.

President Ruto first sought Raila’s support to tame and kick out Gachagua as DP through impeachment to pave way for the appointment of Prof Kithure Kindiki to replace him.

And after the PSs changes, that saw a number of Raila’s allies joining government, the ODM chief and his lieutenants are now said to be focusing on more CSs slots, appointments to mid-level public institutions, parastatals, independent commissions and diplomatic jobs.

On Thursday when President Ruto published the various appointments, Raila allies went into a frenzy, hailing the Head of State for the move and demanded for more positions in government while disquiet ensued among leaders in Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance.

Attack dog

ODM’s attack dog on social media and Homa Bay Town lawmaker, Peter Kaluma took to his X account to thank the President for keeping the promise and taking good steps toward inclusion and equity while reorganizing the PSs.

“Some work has been done on the position of Principal Secretaries. A little touch-up on the position of CSs, and then we go to mid-level civil service, where tribalism, ethnic, and regional discrimination reside,” Kaluma said.

Another political analyst, Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi says that in the complex political environment of Kenya, Raila has managed to keep his hand on the pulse of government affairs, despite not holding a formal position within President Ruto’s government.

“Through strategic alliances, political savvy, and an unspoken understanding with Ruto, Raila continues to shape the political direction of the country. Whether through direct influence over key appointments, behind-the-scenes negotiation, or his ability to sway parliamentary votes, Raila’s grip on the political apparatus remains strong,” Mwangangi says.

The Machakos County Deputy boss, however, cautions the ODM leader not to forget areas such as Ukambani and Gusii that heavily contributed to the votes he amassed in 2022 that have now made him what he is.

“Unfortunately, this has been Raila’s tradition, that whenever he gets inside government, he only remembers his ODM allies and relatives while completely people from other regions. To make matter worse, he only concentrates on appointments to government positions while not pushing for development projects,” Mwangangi cautioned.

Kenya has a total of 508 mid-level public institutions comprising, 10 constitutional commissions and independent offices, 51 ministries and state departments, 36 public universities, 204 State Corporations and Semi-Autonomous Government Agencies (SAGAs), eight statutory commissions and authorities and 199 technical and vocational education training institutes (TVETS).

ODM is pushing to have more control in these institutions emphasizing that its members have been discriminated against in government appointments merely because they are in opposition.

The reorganization of the PSs came barely two weeks after President Ruto and Raila signed a political deal signaling the formalization of the broad-based government.

Though touted as a tool to foster national unity, the implementation of the 10 point agenda pact is seen to be prioritizing the sharing of government positions between the former political archrivals at the expense of other critical issues affecting Kenyans like corruption, national debt and unemployment.

Civil service recruitment

Politically, the pressure from the Raila camp to broaden the government further by recruiting more of their members into civil service is likely to cause ripples in Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition as his allies fear being edged out of government.

President Ruto who is facing dwindling political support in his camp and among Kenyans finds himself in a precarious position, juggling between meeting the ever-growing Raila demand for more government positions, controlling a badly performing economy, bringing to order health and education sectors which are marred with glitches and still preventing the collapse of his Kenya Kwanza alliance.

Democratic Party of Kenya (DPK), headed by Public Service Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi was the first Kenya Kwanza member to set the pace of exit after it issued a 30-day notice last week as it planned to exit the alliance.

The clamour for positions in public institutions also poses a litmus test for Ruto who must comply with the Public Service Commission (PSC) requirements over such appointments which include constitutional representation, merit and regional representation.

“On diversity and inclusion, the Constitution requires that fair competition and merit be the basis for appointments and promotions in public service. However, institutions are required to ensure representation of Kenya’s diverse communities and afford adequate and equal opportunities for appointment, training, and advancement at all levels of public service to men and women, members of all ethnic groups, and persons with disabilities,” PSC stated in its Status of Compliance of the Public Service for the year 2023/24.

A PSC report tabled in Parliament last year in March showed that two communities that Ruto banked on to win the presidency, Kikuyu and his native Kalenjin tribe occupied slightly over one-third of the jobs in the ministries and state department.

Out of the 75,031 positions, the Kikuyu hold 16,691 slots, an equivalent of 22.25 per cent while another 10,565 are filled by Kalenjins, an equivalent of 14 per cent.

The Luhya community which Ruto has set eyes on for political support in his 2027 re-election bid holds 8,879 (11.83 per cent), with Luo, Raila’s native community following closely with 7,774 jobs (10.36 per cent).

Kisii community is the last on the top five tribes with many government workers with 5,595 slots (7.45 per cent).

A PSC report says both the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin communities were over-represented in the public service jobs.

Additionally, to address the performance management gaps identified PSC said that there is a need for every public institution to develop and implement affirmative action programmes to redress representation gaps for PWDs, gender and ethnic groups.

Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, who was removed from the powerful National Assembly Budget Committee, has distanced himself from the ongoing power struggles.

“The last conversation I had with the President of the country was before October last year. Permit me not to discuss any leader here. I will not be provoked to repay evil with evil or insults with insults,” Nyoro said during a press briefing on Tuesday this week.

“I don’t fear anyone and no one can threaten me. Reacting to provocation only fuels it. Anger is a very heavy burden to carry. I respect all leaders because no one becomes a leader by chance,” he added.

On his part, Mathira MP Eric Wamumbi argues that the broad-based government formulated by President Ruto and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader was meant to include all Kenyans in the country’s leadership.

“Broad-based government meant including all. Leaders from Mt Kenya got positions too. Again, the issue is not about those who supported or did not support the former DP,” Wamumbi told People Daily.