In a move that is likely to tilt Kenya’s political landscape, President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga this week hinted at the formalisation of their broad-based arrangement that was conceived following the Gen Z protests in June last year.

The two leaders met at State House, Mombasa days after Raila failed to clinch the coveted African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson seat in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

President Ruto and Raila have built the broad-based association as a remedy to the country’s economic and political challenges in a move that is likely to bring the two foes turned friends ahead of 2027 General Elections.

“I am back home here, I am going to meet with my friends, and supporters and consult widely going forward. In due course, we are going to announce our way forward,” said Raila.

During the meeting, President Ruto laid more emphasis on their political arrangement.

Prime Minister debate

“As an administration that is now broad-based, there is every reason for us to accelerate the momentum for delivery of the things that will transform our nation,” said President Ruto. Raila has already embarked on a series of consultative meetings across the country to prepare his supporters for his big announcement, which he says will make next week.
President Ruto’s close allies like Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei and Belgut MP Nelson Koech have specifically advocated for creating a Prime Minister position for Raila.

However, it is now emerging that should Raila enter into a Grand Coalition Government with President Ruto, such a move will deal a big blow to his close allies like Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula among others.

Lawyer Julius Mirii told PD Wikendi that the inclusion of Raila in government as a Prime Minister would see a lot of casualties.

Duplication of duties

“Should President Ruto incorporate Raila into his government, such a move will deal a big blow to the two top politicians from Western Kenya, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula. First, Mudavadi was appointed as a supervisor of Cabinet Secretaries, a role he might be stripped off, as it is played by Prime Ministers,” he said.

Mirii predicated that there is a likelihood of emerging power fights between Mudavadi and Raila on superiority should the latter join the government.

“Prof Kindiki might also find himself in a power struggle as the chief assistant to the President. There will likely be a replica of the 2008-2013 power and ego fights,” Mirii predicted.

According to Executive Order Number 2, Mudavadi’s office is mandated to oversee the performance of the Principal Secretaries, including periodic meetings with him.

Apart from assisting the President and his deputy in the coordination and supervision of ministries and State departments, being the head of Kenya’s Foreign Service, and advising the presidency on regional, continental, and global affairs, Mudavadi also chairs the Principal Secretaries’ committees and oversees national government operations.
Mudavadi’s additional role involves supporting the CSs of National Treasury and Economic Planning, Investments, Trade and Industry, Agriculture and Livestock Development, and other ministries within the productive sector to deepen Kenya’s diplomatic and economic partnerships.

With regard to the new dynamics with entry of Baba in Government, former Amani National Congress (ANC) Uasin Gishu County branch chairman Nechu Saina termed Mudavadi, Wetang’ula and Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung’wah as hangers in the Kenya Kwanza administration.

“There’s no doubt that these guys are past their sell-by date in the Kenya Kwanza coalition. As for Wetang’ula and Mudavadi, this is the political price one pays when you take your supporters for granted; using them for self-preservation and selfish gain. They have hardly learnt the art of politics despite being around for over four political decades,” said Saina.
Saina observed that Raila’s absence from the local political scene in the past year or so has not helped matters for Mudavadi and Wetang’ula.

Too comfy in Government

“These guys are so comfortable in government to the extent that they have forgotten that their boss, President Ruto is staring at the 2027 presidential election where he might win or lose and so they must work hard to consolidate the Mulembe nation in his favour,” he added.
Saina exuded confidence that Raila will likely outshine the Mudavadi, Wetang’ula duo in Western Kenya ahead of the 2027 General Elections.
“This is because they lack a political plan and have done just about zero to develop their backyard in the last two years that they have been in close contact with power,” explained Saina.

This comes when there is an ongoing effort to oust Wetang’ula as Speaker of the National Assembly. Recent developments indicate that a group of activists has initiated a case against him, accusing him of defying a court ruling that declared Kenya Kwanza the majority party.

This situation has escalated into discussions about potential consequences, including a possible prison sentence for Wetang’ula.
Efforts to save Wetang’ula from impeachment have taken an ethnic twist, as leaders from the Western region caucus came to his defense.

In a press address at Parliament Buildings, the legislators vowed to ensure that Wetang’ula was not removed from office.

The caucus, which was represented by 15 MPs and led by Teso South MP Mary Emase, also expressed disapproval of what they described as a sustained and unjustified attack on Wetang’ula’s leadership.

On his part, political analyst Joseph Simekha told PD Wikendi should Raila get into a formal political coalition with the Kenya Kwanza government, the situation in Kenya right now is too fluid to predict whether there will be any tectonic shifts.

“Right now, they are in an informal political coalition and what they seemed to be hoping for (from their public utterances) has somewhat backfired on them. They have ended up creating a hero in former DP Rigathi Gachagua with a sizable political following while they thought they would finish him politically,” said Simekha.

That said, Simekha observed that Musalia and Kindiki are not that politically consequential in national political dynamics.

Feeling betrayed

“It’s not my analysis but what we are all observing in real-time. They don’t have a stronghold on any significant political constituency like Gachagua. Formation of a formal political coalition between President Ruto and Raila will therefore push them further to the periphery,” explained Simekha.
Meanwhile, Saina reiterated that should Raila enter the fray, then he will tag along the people he has heavily invested in who are also his trusted lieutenants.

“As Gachagua rightly puts it, Raila comes around with a solid voting bloc, unlike Mudavadi who sold his birthright for selfish gain. Today, even if the president sacks him, no one will feel the impact because he (Mudavadi) rode on people’s backs to earn that seat and forgot all about his past,” added Saina. According to Saina who has since fallen out with Mudavadi, the few people who believed in him (Mudavadi) feel betrayed and are rearing for political payback.

“Suffice it to say, Raila when given the first opportunity to nominate people to the government of the day, settled on Wycliffe Oparanya from Mulembe nation, John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi from Nyanza and Hassan Ali Joho from the Coast. The icing on the cake was the first woman Cabinet Secretary from Turkana County, Beatrice Askul,” said Saina.

On the other hand, Saina argued that Mudavadi nominated himself to two prestigious seats where he now doubles as the Prime Cabinet Secretary and Foreign and Diaspora Affairs CS.

However, Simekha further observed that a political coalition with Ruto would likely strengthen the Head of State slightly, as their current coalition did, and weaken Raila further.

“A majority of the most politically vocal public is unhappy with any move that Raila makes to strengthen Ruto. It is perceived as a selfish personal move for the material benefit of himself, his family and his close associates – just like CS Oparanya publicly confirmed when he was appointed CS. So, any move to make Raila a Prime Minister (I wonder how that will happen without a constitutional referendum) will benefit Raila materially but cost him politically,” he explained.

When DP Kindiki joined the government late last year, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya said the move would push Mudavadi and Wetang’ula away from the presidency.

“As Trans Nzoia residents, we must be alive to what is happening at the national level. There have been changes in the presidency. We now have a new deputy president, Kithure Kindiki who was born in 1972 while President Ruto was born in 1966 and that is called succession management. This means that when Ruto vacates office he will be succeeded by Kindiki,” Governor Natembeya stated.

On the other hand, Governor Natembeya said Mudavadi and Wetang’ula are older than Ruto and Kindiki, putting them.

“This means that our two sons from the Mulembe nation are not part of the succession matrix. If any Luhya is banking his hopes on Mudavadi or Wetang’ula then be rest assured that is a miss,” said the county boss.