The Orange Democratic Movement’s (ODM) demand for an equal share of power in its ongoing talks with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has injected fresh intensity into Kenya’s coalition politics ahead of the 2027 General Election.

While ODM leaders frame the proposal as a fair correction of past imbalances, political analyst and Kitui Central Member of Parliament (MP) Makali Mulu argues that the party still has significant internal and strategic hurdles to clear before its 50/50 claim can be sustained.

The debate was reignited on Sunday, February 1, 2026, when ODM national chairperson Gladys Wanga publicly laid out the party’s expectations during a roadside rally in Dandora, Nairobi County. Wanga said ODM had formally mandated Oburu Odinga to negotiate directly with President Ruto on a balanced power-sharing arrangement, stressing that the party would not settle for symbolic inclusion.

“Sisi kama ODM tumesema hivi, Dr Oburu Odinga aingie katika mazungumzo na President William Ruto, wasikizane, ile ng’ombe ikatwe katikati, ODM ichukue nusu, UDA ichukue nusu,” Wanga declared.

The Homa Bay governor coupled the power-sharing demand with an ambitious electoral forecast, declaring that ODM was on course to sweep all elective seats in Nairobi County in 2027, save for the presidency.

Speaking earlier at a church service in Dandora, she said the party was united, well-organised and deeply rooted in the capital, positioning itself to win all MCA, MP, Senate and gubernatorial seats.

ODM demands

According to Wanga, the presidency would go to a broad-based government candidate, President Ruto, with whom ODM would have reached a negotiated understanding.

It is this confidence that Makali Mulu both acknowledges and interrogates. Responding to Wanga’s remarks, Mulu said ODM’s 50/50 demand is a genuine claim in historical terms, particularly given the stabilising role the party played when it joined the government.

However, Mulu warned that coalition bargaining is not won by rhetoric alone.

“It is good to make these statements they are making, but I think ODM has much more to do at the level of ODM before they claim the 50%,” he said during an interview on a local TV station on Monday, February 2, 2026.

In his view, the real test lies in whether the party can demonstrate unity and electoral value across regions, not just strongholds like Nairobi.

Mulu pointed to emerging regional tensions within ODM as the party’s biggest vulnerability. Coastal leaders have openly demanded a larger share of influence, warning they could chart a separate political path if their expectations are not met.

Scramble for share

Similar signals have come from Western Kenya, where leaders argue that their contribution to ODM’s national profile has not been adequately recognised. These internal pressures, Mulu said, weaken ODM’s bargaining power.

“That claim of 50% can only become realistic if they remain united.”

The ripple effects of ODM’s push are also being felt within UDA. According to Mulu, many UDA legislators privately feel that ODM’s presence in government has narrowed their political space, particularly in competition for development resources.

“The coming in of ODM to the government really messed a lot of their plans as individual plans,” he noted.

As 2027 approaches, these dynamics place MPs and other elected leaders under intense re-election pressure.

 Mulu predicts that political survival instincts will trump coalition loyalty. “When you get to election time, the thinking is always me first,” he said, warning that internal conflicts could drive defections and realignments.