Inside Ol Kalou by-election: Ruto, Gachagua face Mt Kenya’s 2027 litmus test
By Aloys Michael, April 13, 2026The upcoming Ol Kalou by-election is fast shaping into more than a routine electoral exercise; it is emerging as a defining political moment that could recalibrate the balance of power in Mt Kenya and offer an early preview of the 2027 succession battle.
The by-election was triggered by the death of Ol Kalou MP David Njunguna Kiaraho, an event that has added a layer of solemnity even as political temperatures rise.
Both camps have attempted to strike a delicate balance between mourning and mobilisation, though the underlying contest is unmistakable.
In the chessboard lies an intensifying rivalry between President William Ruto and his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua, whose once formidable political alliance has since fractured into competing centres of influence.
What unfolds in Ol Kalou will not only determine local leadership but also test the depth of loyalty each commands in a region that played a decisive role in Ruto’s ascent to power.
Far from being an ordinary local race, the contest is evolving into a high-stakes political showdown that will test shifting loyalties and regional dynamics.
Gachagua is expected to lean heavily on his grassroots networks, carefully cultivated over the years within Mt Kenya, while Ruto’s camp will deploy the advantages of incumbency, bolstered by state machinery and a well-oiled political infrastructure.
Recent developments have added further intrigue. The Mbeere North by-election delivered a significant win for Ruto and his deputy, Kithure Kindiki, a result widely interpreted as a signal that the political tide in parts of Mt Kenya East may be shifting.
The victory not only enhanced Kindiki’s profile as a regional mobiliser but also injected momentum into Ruto’s camp heading into Ol Kalou.
Kindiki has wasted little time capitalising on that momentum, adopting a combative tone that underscores the stakes involved.
“He came chest-thumping in Mbeere North, and I floored him. Just wait, there is a by-election coming in Ol Kalou, and we will meet there. I will floor him badly. That is where he will learn to respect me,” Kindiki said.
Such remarks have set the stage for a bruising contest, with Gachagua pushing back against narratives that his influence is waning, arguing that the Mbeere North outcome does not accurately reflect his strength, pointing out that his party did not field a candidate in that race despite his visible involvement on the campaign trail.
Gachagua-Kindiki row
In a pointed rebuttal, Gachagua accused Kindiki of straying from cultural norms and embracing confrontational politics.
“Nimeona Jana huyu Saprano akipiga kifua ati ooh, nitakuwa huko Olkalou, ati nitaona kivumbi. Wewe Saprano, please, I know you have learnt bad manners from Ruto. Because you are our son, you know our traditions and customs as the people of Mt Kenya, we don’t discuss the inheritance of anybody before he is buried. Those are our ways. Sasa hii tabia umefundishwa na Ruto ni ya nini. Wewe tulia. Hold your horses. Let us bury Kiaraho,” Gachagua said.
His remarks come as Gachagua move to tighten his grip on the vote-rich region and position himself as the custodian of Mt Kenya’s cultural and political identity, in contrast to what he portrays as Ruto’s more aggressive political style.
Kindiki, however, remains undeterred. Reinforcing his earlier stance.
“We have a by-election coming up in Ol Kalou, Nyandarua; we will meet with that man. We will deal with him squarely, and that is where respect will start reigning,” he declared.
Gachagua has remained defiant, insisting that his political base remains intact despite his impeachment.
Speaking during Kiaraho’s requiem service, he sought to reaffirm his connection with the electorate.
“Mr President, you impeached me, but you did not remove me from the hearts of these people,” he said. “Mt Kenya people still love me, and even more after what happened.”
Ruto, in contrast, has adopted a more measured tone, steering away from confrontation and focusing on development.
UDA-DCP charm offensives
Addressing mourners, he pledged to prioritise infrastructure and healthcare in the constituency, including the completion of stalled road projects and the construction of a Level 4 hospital, even as he insists that he does not need permission to talk to the people of Mt Kenya.
“They have spoken on me, but I will not respond here. I will only come here to respond to development,” Ruto said.
This divergence in messaging reflects two distinct campaign philosophies: Gachagua’s emotive, identity-driven appeal versus Ruto’s development-centric approach aimed at consolidating support through tangible projects.
Strategically, Gachagua has been selective in recent by-elections, at times opting to back allied candidates rather than field his own.
However, Ol Kalou is widely expected to mark a departure from that approach. Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens (DCP) party may field a direct candidate, setting up a clear, high-stakes contest against Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).