The Ol Kalou defeat should not be dismissed as an isolated by-election setback. It exposed weaknesses that could cost the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) the wider Mt Kenya vote in 2027.

UDA did not lose because it lacked money, projects or senior campaigners. It lost because voters questioned the timing, messengers and political motive behind its campaign.

Sammy Kamau Ngotho secured 35,440 votes against Samuel Muchina Nyagah’s 5,450. That margin demands a complete political reset built around four practical strategies.

Turn development into daily proof

First, UDA should spread development across Mt Kenya instead of concentrating projects in constituencies facing elections.

The roads, markets, hospitals, digital hubs, land registries, title deeds and university facilities witnessed in Ol Kalou should be replicated across the region. Construction must continue daily until 2027.

Projects launched in Ol Kalou must also be completed despite UDA’s defeat. Abandoning them would suggest they were campaign bait. Completing them would show that the government serves citizens regardless of how they vote.

Second, UDA must put household economics at the centre of its recovery plan.

Residents judge the government through food prices, school fees, jobs and business conditions.

Coffee, tea, dairy, potato and macadamia farmers need better prices, affordable inputs and reliable markets. Young people need jobs and accessible credit.

Visible projects matter, but they become politically powerful when families can feel their impact.

Rebuild trust and deny Gachagua martyrdom

Third, UDA must rebuild its grassroots machinery.

Cabinet Secretaries cannot replace respected village organisers.

The party should audit every Ol Kalou polling station, identify why supporters defected or stayed home and begin listening without dismissing criticism as disloyalty.

UDA must also conduct credible nominations and allow residents to choose candidates they trust. Imposed candidates will struggle regardless of the government resources behind them.

Fourth, UDA should avoid attacking Rigathi Gachagua at all costs.

Calling him tribal, insulting him or tolerating groups that disrupt his rallies only strengthens his persecution narrative.

Every attack gives him free publicity and deepens his emotional connection with Mt Kenya voters.

The government should provide adequate security at these meetings.

His rallies should be protected with the professionalism accorded to a presidential contender. Anyone attempting to disrupt them should be apprehended, regardless of political affiliation.

That approach would deny Gachagua the martyrdom he gains from confrontation.

Voters would see two political sides campaigning freely, not a powerful government fighting one man.

UDA can still recover Mt Kenya. However, it must deliver consistently, listen respectfully, choose credible local leaders and stop helping Gachagua build his political brand.