President William Ruto seems to have trained his eyes on his 2027 re-election bid as he stealthily embarks on clearing hurdles lying in his path.

After winning the support of his arch-rival Raila Odinga, whose bastion he is now eyeing to inherit, and pushing his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua into political oblivion, the president could be steadily marching to 2027 without much challenge.

All indications are pointing to a possible scenario where Ruto may easily bag his second term due to the lack of a strong competitor to challenge him at the polls.

“The apparent partnership between President Ruto and Raila is for both convenience and strategic political manoeuvre by the former to eliminate his fiercest opponent. That is why the President is involved in high-level diplomacy to ensure that Raila clinches the chairmanship of the African Union Commission,” says political analyst Javas Bigambo.

According to Bigambo, once Raila is out of the local political scene, Ruto would sort out almost 70 per cent of his headache over his re-election bid. Already, he adds, the president is moving towards winning over Raila’s backyard of Nyanza.

Some MPs from Nyanza on Sunday assured Ruto that he would inherit Raila’s political base while their Central Kenya counterparts assured him of support in a region that is reeling from the removal of their top-most leader in the ruling Kenya Kwanza administration.

Homa Bay Town MP, Peter Kaluma, told Ruto in Moiben, Uasin Gishu county, that there were plans to hand over Raila’s political base as soon as the ODM leader ascends to the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship.

“Raila will hand over his political support in the Nyanza region and ODM to you (Ruto) before leaving for Addis Ababa,” Kaluma said.

Kaluma was among MPs from North Rift, Nyanza and Central regions, who accompanied Ruto to a prayer service at Our Lady of Fatima Catholic Church in Moiben.

Kaluma applauded Ruto for uniting the country through his broad-based working arrangement with ODM, adding that the president is a political strategist who will ensure Raila clinches the African Union job.

“It is evident that President Ruto has converted Raila from being a fierce critic of the regime to being its foremost defender and partner in the implementation of the Bottom Up Economic Agenda,” says Bigambo, adding that even if Raila loses the AUC position, it may not be a walk in the park for him to rejuvenate his political career.

Bigambo says that besides moving to inherit the former Prime Minister’s backyard, Ruto is also moving to kick out notable enemies within Kenya Kwanza and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

“The impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua was mainly meant to ensure full loyalty in UDA in a bid for him to deliver on his manifesto and prepare for his re-election bid,” observes Bigambo.

Unfulfilled promises

Another political analyst, Prof Macharia Munene, concurs with Bigambo and goes on to say that President Ruto is trying to play down the importance of the Mount Kenya region in Kenyan politics by elevating other regions.

“He appears bent on moving to win over the entire Western and Nyanza regions, Raila’s backyards as well as other areas such as Coast, Lower Eastern and North Eastern. This may work well for him since at the moment, there is no formidable person from Central who can effectively challenge him,” says Macharia.

But Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, an ardent supporter of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, thinks that President Ruto could be digging his own grave by failing to implement his promises.

“Many Kenyans have lost hope in this government because of the many unfulfilled promises. There is nothing they have done to guarantee them re-election in 2027 and if anything, they are likely to be sent home by the electorate,” he says.

Mwangangi says Kalonzo has been ready for the presidency and 2027 could not come soon enough.

“We do not need to prepare Kalonzo for 2027, he is ready and the information that we are getting from the grassroots is that Kenyans are ready, and we have to stick behind Kalonzo Musyoka and we are not turning back,” says Mwangangi.

According to Mwangangi, the time for Kalonzo to lead Kenya has come and that’s why he is now the leader of the Azimio coalition. Since his election in 2022, President Ruto has intensified his grip on regional politics to consolidate votes and water down the influence of political kingpins.

Herding cattle

Widely viewed as a political schemer, Ruto has managed to neutralise the political power that both Gachagua and Raila held in 2022, which could have been used to oust him from the presidency.

It all started when pictures of President Ruto and Raila herding cattle at Uganda President Yoweri Museveni’s ranch in the Kisozi area surfaced online in February. This was the first-ever meeting between Raila and Ruto who were believed not to be seeing eye-to-eye before and shortly after the last general elections.

Though the motive of the Uganda meeting was not initially known, details later emerged that the two were seeking the support of Museveni after Raila had declared his interest in vying for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship.

After the Kisozi informal meeting, Ruto and Raila retreated back home to lay out a plan on how to push the AUC agenda. From then, Raila faded away from the public limelight and toned down his criticism of the government.

A month after the Uganda meeting, the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report was released and unlike other Azimio La Umoja One Kenya alliance leaders who rejected the majority of its proposals, Raila insisted on its implementation without alterations.

Among the notable proposals in the Nadco report was to give Raila a constitutionally backed office as the Leader of the Opposition.

Raila also said that he was ditching local politics to concentrate on his new calling at a time when his key allies who served in the Azimio coalition had already joined the newly formed broad-based government.

With this backing, Raila denounced his position as the Orange Democratic Movement party appointing Kisumu governor Anyang Nyong’o as his successor. With Raila’s exit, Ruto’s determination to conquer the Nyanza region is evident as he sets his eyes on clinching the 2027 polls.

His key allies, who would have supported him in his presidential bid, are occupying lucrative ministerial dockets in the Kenya Kwanza government.

As for the embattled Gachagua, his little political experience is nothing compared to the vast experience possessed by his boss.

In less than a month, and without uttering a word, Ruto has beaten Gachagua on his own game, pushing him out of office through a bitter impeachment and appointed Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki as his replacement.

The former Mathira MP is greatly disparaged and even though he may seek to build himself anew, he finds himself in very unfamiliar territory to the advantage of Ruto who has been in the game for over 30 years.

The remaining period before the general election is too short for Gachagua to establish a political base that can propel him to State House even if he pocketed the whole of Mt. Kenya region.