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The defections of Kisii Senator Sam Ongeri and Deputy Governor Joash Maangi from ODM has set the stage for vicious electoral battles revolving on clan mathematics.

Already, rivalry between the two major clans has started shaping the contest for governorship in neighbouring Nyamira County.

Ongeri has indicated he will battle for governorship against Dagoretti North MP Simba Arati (ODM), Nyaribari Masaba MP Ezekiel Machogu (of Deputy President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance), Jubilee’s Chris Obure and former South Mugirango MP Manson Nyamweya.

 A disgruntled Ongeri ditched ODM for the Democratic Alliance Party of Kenya (DAP-K), associated with Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, while Maangi joined UDA. Arati and Obure hail from Bobasi clan while Ongeri and Machogu are from Nyaribari sub-group. Nyamweya is from Mugirango.   

Easy ride for ticket

Ongeri’s exit could give Arati an easy ride for the ODM ticket ahead of the August contest. The Dagoretti North MP has picked Kitutu Chache MP Richard Onyonka as his Senate candidate and former Nyaribari Chache lawmaker Robert Monda as the running mate.

According to records from the   2017 Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, the county has 546,580 registered voters, the bulk of whom are from Nyaribari clan (136,793), followed by Kitutu (108,682) and Bomachoge( 90,826).

Other clans — Bobasi, South Mugirango and Bonchari — trail with 89,310, 67,345 and 52,624 voters, respectively.

David Omato, a political pundit, says governorship aspirants have picked running mates, senators and Woman Representative hopefuls from vote-rich blocs to bolster their chances. 

“Elections are about numbers. That is why the governorship aspirants want to capitalise on the numerical strength of these blocs”, Omato explains.

By picking Onyonka, Arati expects to reap from the Kitutu bloc while Monda is likely to deliver sizeable support from the Nyaribari clan. The candidatures of Ongeri and Machogu could split their Nyaribari clan vote to the advantage of their rivals in what is emerging as a tight contest for governorship. 

The same is expected in regard to Obure and Arati, who hail from the same clan,  although the Dagoretti MP seems to have an upper hand. Obure, who is from Bobasi constituency, has picked civil servant William Mbaka  from Kitutu and Charles Onyancha from Bonchari, as his running mate and preferred Senator, respectively. 

He is shopping for a Woman Representative to complete the team.

Machogu has picked lawyer Migosi Ogamba (from Kitutu Chache as his running mate while Maangi (Bomachoge) will ran for Senate  in the line-up. Machogu was elected through National Agenda Party of Kenya. He is seeking to contest on a United Democratic Alliance ticket.  

Yet to choose parties

The other candidates, former South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara and Racheal Otundo, who ditched UDA over what they termed as lack of democracy, are yet to identify parties on which they will contest the governorship seat.

Machogu wants voters to bank on the strength of UDA’s manifesto, which is on: “Improving the welfare of poor and forgotten people”.

According to Omato, there is a strong likelihood that clan interests will determine the contests. “Voters will focus on the governorship seat more than the other slots. That will tilt the numbers regardless of the political party concerned”, Omato says, stressing anybody can win the seat.

He adds that Obure and Arati from (Bobasi clan) could share the area’s  80,000 votes, and rely on support from Bogetutu and Bonchari clans for support.