Kenya is headed for a hotter and significantly drier December as the 2025 short-rains season comes to an unusually weak close, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has announced in its Climate Outlook for December 2025 and Review for November 2025.

According to the detailed advisory dated November 30, 2025, most parts of the country will experience near-average to below-average rainfall, with the northeastern region expected to face highly depressed rains, aggravating already worsening dry conditions.

November, typically the peak month of the OND (October–November–December) short rains, was marked by severely suppressed rainfall, with several stations, including Lamu, Lodwar, and Mandera, recording zero rainfall.

“December typically marks the end of the October–November–December (OND) “short rains” season in Kenya. The forecast for December indicates that most parts of the country are likely to experience near-average to below-average (generally depressed) rainfall, while parts of the northeastern region are likely to receive below-average (highly depressed) rainfall,” the weatherman stated in the report.

“This situation is likely to exacerbate the ongoing dry conditions, especially over the arid regions, driven by the markedly depressed rainfall observed in November. The rainfall distribution, both in time and space, is expected to be generally poor with prolonged dry spells. However, episodes of heavy rainfall are still likely to occur in some parts of the country during this period. The southeastern lowlands, for instance, are likely to receive significant rainfall at the beginning of the month. The OND 2025 seasonal rainfall is expected to cease between the first and fourth weeks of December across several regions of the country.”

La Niña and weak IOD driving suppressed rains

The weatherman attributes the depressed rainfall to the ongoing La Niña, which is forecast to persist through February 2026, coupled with the weakening negative Indian Ocean Dipole. These global climate drivers typically cause drier-than-normal conditions across East Africa.

A transition back to ENSO-neutral conditions could occur between January and March 2026, but KMD warns that this will not reverse the immediate impacts already being felt.

Region-by-Region Breakdown

The forecast shows poor rainfall distribution across the country, with prolonged dry spells expected.

In Northeastern Kenya (Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo), highly depressed rainfall and predominantly sunny, dry conditions are expected.

Northwestern Kenya (Turkana, Samburu) will mostly remain dry, with very occasional showers.

Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Nairobi will receive intermittent rains, but still below normal.

Lake Victoria Basin & Western Highlands will see some rainfall episodes, though still depressed.

Southeastern Lowlands (Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita Taveta) will likely experience significant showers early in December, then generally be dry.

The coastal strip will see below-normal rains across Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Tana River.

KMD adds that the OND 2025 rains will cease between the first and fourth weeks of December, marking an early or normal end to the season.