Kenya’s agricultural sector is expected to remain stable over the next three months despite forecasts of reduced rainfall in several food-producing regions, according to the latest seasonal outlook by the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD).

In its June-July-August (JJA) 2026 forecast released on Monday, June 1, 2026, Kenya Met said favourable soil moisture from the recently concluded March-April-May (MAM) long-rains season will help sustain crop growth across major agricultural zones even as rainfall declines in the coming months.

“Near-average to below-average rainfall in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley and North-western Kenya are expected to sustain agricultural production following the near-average to above-average rainfall received in March to May,” the department said.

The forecast is likely to offer relief to farmers in key grain-producing counties such as Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Nandi, Nakuru and Narok, where intermittent dry spells are expected between June and August.

At the same time, Kenya Met projects that these regions will receive near-average to below-average rainfall during the period, but crop performance is expected to benefit from moisture reserves accumulated earlier in the year.

The department noted that most parts of the country recorded near-average to above-average rainfall during the MAM season, creating favourable conditions for ongoing agricultural activities.

Farmers along the Coast are also expected to benefit from wetter conditions. According to the forecast, Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu counties are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall.

“The Coast is likely to benefit from near-average to above-average rainfall that is expected to provide moisture for the growth of crops,” Kenya Met said.

Slow crop production?

However, the weather agency warned that cooler conditions could slow crop development in some regions.

Cool and cloudy weather, accompanied by occasional fog, is expected in the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyeri, Murang’a and parts of the Rift Valley.

“These conditions may delay crop maturity,” the department cautioned.

The weatherman has also raised concerns over strong winds forecast in eastern and coastal parts of the country, warning that winds exceeding 25 knots could physically damage crops and increase evapotranspiration, leading to faster moisture loss from soils.

While the season is expected to be generally drier across many regions, Kenya Met says the strong performance of the long-rains season should cushion farmers and help maintain agricultural production through the third quarter of the year.