Nearly half of Kenyans believe the political alliance between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga could enhance the fairness of the 2027 General Elections, according to the latest survey by TIFA Research released on Wednesday, May 28, 2025.

The poll, conducted between May 2, 2025, and May 6, 2025, reveals that 30% of respondents think the alliance makes a free and fair election more likely, while 45% believe the opposite, that the partnership will undermine the credibility of the upcoming polls.

The findings point to a sharply divided electorate as the country approaches a pivotal election season.

Public opinion split

TIFA’s findings show that public confidence in the Ruto-Raila political cooperation is far from uniform. 21% of Kenyans said the pact makes fair elections much more likely, with another 9% believing it will somewhat improve fairness.

Meanwhile, 36% think it makes fair elections much less likely, and 9% believe it will somewhat reduce fairness.

An additional 18% think the alliance will have no effect, and 8% are undecided.

“Opinion among Kenyans is quite divided as to the perceived impact of the ‘broad-based’ cooperation arrangement,” TIFA observed in its report.

“Confidence in electoral integrity is heavily influenced by where one stands politically.”

Political alignment matters

Supporters of the Broad-Based Government (BBG) are significantly more hopeful.

Among those who support the alliance, 44% believe the partnership will improve electoral fairness, compared to just 11% among BBG opponents.

In contrast, 44% of BBG critics think it will worsen election integrity, highlighting stark divisions in political trust.

This trend underscores how political affiliation is shaping perceptions of democratic institutions, especially the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), which is yet to be fully constituted ahead of the polls.

IEBC still unsettled

At the heart of the concern is the IEBC’s leadership vacuum. With the chairperson and commissioners yet to be appointed, public trust remains in flux.

The Ruto-Raila coalition’s impact on this process is being closely watched by both critics and supporters.

With the 2027 elections just over two years away, the TIFA survey offers a clear snapshot of Kenya’s political anxiety, and the high stakes attached to how alliances shape electoral outcomes.