A majority of Kenyans believe Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga will support President William Ruto in the 2027 elections.

This is according to a TIFA poll revealed on Wednesday, September 23, 2025, that polled the division over Raila’s political position.

According to the TIFA, 32 per cent affirmed that Raila will support the incumbent president for a second term in office.

Anchoring opposite

Meanwhile, while a majority expect him to align with Ruto, nearly half still see him anchoring the opposition—either directly or indirectly.

Also watch: Anyang Nyong’o says ODM will have a presidential candidate in 2027.

23 per cent of Kenyans believe the ODM veteran leader will rejoin the opposition and contest the presidency himself, with another 14 per cent seeing him rejoin the opposition and support another candidate.

With Raila’s political journey having taken a significant shift from opposition to government, following his joining the Kenya Kwanza government on Friday, March 7, 2025, through the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding, a small percentage have backed him to retire from politics come the 2027 polls.

TIFA also has those who believe the veteran leader will retire and take no part in the next elections at 14 per cent.

The poll also delved into the people’s opinion on Raila’s stance vis-à-vis their attitudes on the broad-based government.

“For their part, nearly half of those opposed to the BBG believe he will have rejoined the opposition by 2027, whether or not he actually contests the presidency yet again (20% + 26% = 46%), the survey reads.

“Another issue about which expectations are clearly influenced by attitudes towards the BBG is that of Raila Odinga’s expected political position in 2027, with almost twice as many who support it expecting that he will back Ruto’s re-election as compared with those who oppose it (46% vs. 28%),” the poll reads.

Disclaimer: This 2nd Release is based on a TIFA national survey conducted between 23 August and 3 September.

2,023 randomly selected Kenyan adults (aged 18 and above) across all 47 counties were interviewed at their residences.