Listen to This Article Enhance your reading experience by listening to this article.

Gakuu Mathenge

Recent political events point towards a shrinking space in the race for running mate position as the clock ticks towards August 9, 2022.

The flurry of activities, statements by candidates and their proxies in the Mt Kenya region also betray an escalating air of urgency for various groups to get their affairs in order for the final sprint.

Top among the highlights is the historic luncheon for ODM leader Raila Odinga organised by Mount Kenya Foundation (MKF) two weeks ago and a second one for One Kenya Alliance (OKA) chiefs held on Thursday last week.

MKF is  a business  lobby that also involves itself in political projects and programmes to influence election outcomes in the region and sway the national tally.

During the luncheon at which leading members of the powerful lobby and political leaders from the region essentially declared their public endorsement of Raila for the top seat was historic in many respects, including laying down broad terms of reference and expectations for candidates and their running mates in return for support.

 Mt Kenya Council of Governors’ Caucus chairman and Nyandarua governor Francis Kimemia said among reasons Mt Kenya leadership has decided backed Raila is that it trusted him to take good care of the first family upon President Uhuru Kenyatta’s retirement. 

He said he trusted Raila’s leadership will honour and return the favour of confident statesmanship President Kenyatta had shown by allowing free debate around his succession when he was still in office.

“It is a difficult subject to talk about, but for those of us who have been involved in transitions, it is not to be taken casually, especially in Africa.

Retired President Mwai Kibaki took good care of the family and property of his predecessor, late President Daniel arap Moi.

I am sure President Uhuru is doing the same. We trust he (Raila) will protect the president’s legacy, family and their property,” Kimemia said.

Kimemia is former Head of Public Service, who was among key senior civil servants that conducted the 2013 transition from retired President Mwai Kibaki to President Kenyatta.

Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui said the MKF event was not about participating in 2022 elections but winning.

“We are not gathered here to plan how to participate in the 2022 elections but how to win.

Kenya is not just another African country. The decision Mt Kenya will make next year will reverberate across Africa,” he said.

Succession politics

But it is Laikipia Governor Nderitu Murithi, who stood out as first among equals among regional leaders articulating the over arching agenda of the event. 

“That country and the region were obligated to be keen and careful in whose hands to vest the task of steering the  fortunes of the country next year, and that person was Raila Odinga.

 A deep dive study of this region’s economy by the Mt Kenya Economic Bloc showed it is bigger than Rwanda, Botswana and 34 African economies.

It is quantified at Sh7 trillion and is driven by some three million small and medium enterprises.

This is why I would petition a Raila administration to set aside Sh150 billion for SMEs support for the youth across the country.”

Muriithi had hosted Raila who was accompanied by Siaya Senator James Orengo and other top ODM officials among them secretary general Edwin Sifuna for three days late last month.

The ODM delegation held closed door meetings with top Party of National Unity (PNU) officials led by chairman Eng David Kamau that went late into the night at the same hotel Raila was booked in.

During the visit Raila also hosted youth, women and business delegations and toured an innovations exhibition organised by local SMEs supported by the County Government of Laikipia.

However, it is the meetings between the ODM and PNU NEC officials in Nanyuki after which Raila and Muriithi would ride in the governor’s official vehicle from Nanyuki through Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a to climax with a rally in Githurai in Kiambu county that had set tongues wagging. 

The poorly disguised public dalliance between the ODM leader and the Laikipia governor was hard to miss, especially a region where several players were being touted for the running mate position.

Muriithi is nephew to retired President Mwai Kibaki, with whom Raila shared the grand coalition government (2008-2013) that ushered in the new Constitution in 2010. 

The latest public declaration of a more than cursory interest in the Kenyatta II succession line-up is Health Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe, who last week declared that he too was in the 2022 presidential race.  

Though this announcement caught many by surprise, it remains to be seen once he puts his show on the road.

Among names in the public domain as revving to stake claims to the presidential or running mate tickets include former Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mwangi Kiunjuri, 2013 presidential candidate Peter Kenneth, Murang’a Governor Mwangi Wa Iria, his Nakuru counterpart Lee Kinyanjui, former Kiambu governor William Kabogo among others. 

The Kenyatta II succession politics have split the Mt Kenya region in two broad camps, one leaning towards Raila and second leaning towards Deputy President William Ruto as preferred presidential candidates.

Both camps have internal competing factions around the question of who and how to go about selecting a running mate from the populous region, hence the perception some ambitious souls were positioning themselves to be courted for the role, but pitching themselves as presidential candidates to attract attention.

Elephant in the room

The knotty question about how to go about selecting a regional kingpin, either as presidential candidate or running mate has left the emergence of yet to be fully defined positioning by Speaker of National Assembly Justin Muturi as presidential candidate.  

The same conundrum has led to the emergence of Mount Kenya Unity Forum spearheaded by three Ms:Kiunjuri, Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua and Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria.

The elephant in the room few want to talk about around the many initiatives revolved around the following conundrum.

 President Uhuru Kenyatta is yet to fully unleash himself overtly as where his heart is in his succession and few wished to be caught on the wrong side of the storm  this may cause whichever candidate he opted to back. 

This makes it wise for smart souls to remain ambivalent and ambiguous saying they belonged to neither Raila nor Ruto,  until the President overtly chooses his race horse.