A recent survey conducted by TIFA Research from May 2-6, 2025, has revealed that 50% of Kenyans believe the presidency of Donald Trump will have a negative impact on the country.

The findings, part of TIFA’s second release of its National Public Issues Survey, titled State of the Nation, Kenya Kwanza Government Performance, 2027 Election Issues, and Foreign Relations, highlight a pervasive pessimism among Kenyans about the implications of Trump’s leadership for Kenya’s economic and political landscape.

Public sentiment on Trump’s impact

The survey, which sampled 2,024 respondents across Kenya’s nine zones, found that only 24% of Kenyans view Trump’s presidency as “good for Kenya,” while 18% believe it will make “no difference,” and 8% are unsure or have no opinion.

This overwhelmingly negative perception cuts across political affiliations, with both supporters and opponents of the Broad-Based Government (BBG)–a coalition between President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga–expressing similar levels of concern. Specifically, 54% of pro-BBG respondents and 52% of anti-BBG respondents anticipate a detrimental impact from Trump’s presidency.

Economic and political context

The TIFA survey paints a grim picture of Kenya’s current state, with 75% of respondents stating that the country is heading in the “wrong direction.” This sentiment is closely tied to economic hardships, as 75% of Kenyans report that their personal or family economic situation has worsened since the 2022 election.

Poor leadership and unemployment were cited as some of the primary reasons for this negative outlook.

“An overwhelmingly majority of Kenyans have experienced deteriorating economic conditions since the last election,” the survey read.

In this context, fears about Trump’s presidency may be amplified by Kenya’s reliance on foreign aid and trade partnerships, particularly with the United States.
The survey notes that the U.S. is seen as the most important non-East African country for Kenya’s economic and political development, with 33% of respondents identifying it as critical for good relations. However, it also ranks as the top perceived threat to Kenya’s development (26%), alongside China (14%).

Broader political dynamics

The survey also explored attitudes toward the BBG, revealing deep divisions. Only 22% of Kenyans support the coalition, while 54% oppose it, and 25% remain undecided. This lack of enthusiasm for the Ruto-Odinga partnership may further contextualise the public’s unease about external influences like Trump’s presidency, as domestic governance issues, such as corruption and poor leadership, are seen as the main barriers to Kenya’s progress.

Additionally, the survey highlighted concerns about the integrity of the upcoming 2027 elections, with 50% of Kenyans expressing no confidence that they will be free and fair. This skepticism is particularly pronounced among BBG opponents, 59% of whom doubt the elections’ integrity, compared to 30% of BBG supporters.

The perceived impact of the Ruto-Odinga cooperation on the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is mixed, with 45% believing it makes a fair election less likely, while 30% see it as a positive factor.