ODM crumbled not because it lost a poll, but because it lost its voice 

In my People Daily article last week, “A Historian’s Candid Take on Decline of Mammoth ODM’s Party Fortunes,” I examined the broader decline of ODM as a political institution that once captured the imagination of millions across Kenya.  

That piece drew wide attention from political observers, party loyalists, strategists, and grassroots mobilizers—especially from Nyanza and Western Kenya.  

Many reached out to offer counterpoints, affirmations, and appeals for deeper analysis. In this follow-up, I reflect further on those engagements, blending them with historical perspectives to make sense of the present political tremors in ODM’s heartland. 

ODM’s stronghold in Nyanza—once defined by loyalty, coordination, and unwavering political solidarity—is now beset by internal fragmentation.  

This is not the first time a liberation-oriented political movement has faced centrifugal forces from within.  

Kenya’s post-independence ruling party, KANU, experienced similar fragmentation in the 1960s when ideological rifts widened between nationalists and regional elites.  

The tension within ODM today follows a similar pattern: internal divisions not over vision alone, but over strategy, ownership, and legitimacy. 

Second Liberation 

In Central Nyanza—particularly in Kisumu and Siaya—the signs of rupture are increasingly visible. Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o and Senator James Orengo, two figures whose names are almost synonymous with the intellectual and legal foundations of Kenya’s second liberation, appear to be walking separate political paths.  

Their messaging regarding the ODM–UDA broad-based arrangement is anything but harmonised, creating a vacuum that grassroots supporters struggle to interpret.  

This drift in leadership unity recalls the ideological ambiguities of the late 1990s when FORD-Kenya and NDP splintered under similar pressure. 

In Southern Nyanza, however, a different story unfolds. Counties like Migori and Homa Bay remain solidly loyal to Raila Odinga, a loyalty rooted in the historical political awakening of the region.  

Yet today, that loyalty manifests in overwhelming support for the UDA–ODM cooperation. 

The governors of these regions have thrown themselves fully into this realignment, exhibiting a fervour that borders on political militancy.  

Their actions echo the 2008 grand coalition government period, where regional leaders immersed themselves in power-sharing without a clear ideological reconfiguration.  

The current moment resembles that phase—pragmatic, yet potentially disorienting to the base. 

Political caution 

Notably, Senators Eddy Oketch (Migori) and Moses Kajwang’ (Homa Bay) have adopted a markedly restrained posture.  

Their sober tone harks back to the days when political caution was the mark of statesmanship, not weakness.  

They seem to recognise that the region’s political capital—while invested in Raila’s vision—should not be wagered without introspection. 

Across the hills of Central Nyanza, a different tenor dominates. Senators Prof Tom Ojienda and Dr Oburu Oginga are neither restrained nor reflective; they are crusaders for the ODM–UDA union.  

Their rhetoric is assertive, their posture confrontational, and their loyalty to the alliance near absolute.  

Such intensity, while energising, to a fraction of the elite, may be alienating the grassroots—a dynamic reminiscent of the 2002 transition, when some KANU loyalists pushed for political alignments that the masses could not relate to. 

In politics, messaging is as vital as strategy. Without coordinated and measured narratives, even the best-laid plans risk backfiring. 

The Central Nyanza senators, in their zeal, may be missing this historical lesson. A party’s direction cannot be dictated by volume, but by coherence—and ODM risks squandering both. 

The turbulence does not end in Nyanza. Western Kenya, historically ODM’s second political frontier after Nyanza, is showing signs of fatigue and quiet detachment.  

This mirrors the disillusionment of the Bukusu and Wanga political classes in the 1980s and 1990s, when opposition politics began to be perceived as either ineffective or hijacked. 

At the centre of this emerging discontent is Busia County. Once Raila Odinga’s most reliable electoral fortress after Homa Bay, Busia has gone unusually quiet.  

Silence in politics is rarely neutral—it often signals contemplation, or worse, withdrawal. 

The silence in Busia may be symptomatic of growing unease with the party’s direction. 

Historically, such silence has preceded political reconfigurations, such as the 1994 shift that saw communities pivot away from traditional loyalties toward more pragmatic alignments. 

Top command 

This is occurring under the watch of Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, a native of the region and a man whose eloquence and combative style once reinvigorated ODM’s youth support.  

Today, however, Sifuna appears politically cornered—willing to go bare-knuckles against perceived critics of the party, yet also seeming to ready himself psychologically for exit.  

His public posture, while understandable in a political dogfight, evokes the final days of party secretaries who could no longer bridge the gap between the party base and its top command. 

History teaches us that political movements falter not because of external resistance, but because of internal disintegration.  

ODM’s current trajectory is beginning to mirror that pattern. The ideological disarray, contrasting messaging from leaders, and fragmented regional behaviour point to a party whose soul is in question. 

ODM’s enduring legacy as a champion of devolution, social justice, and electoral reform is now being challenged—not by rivals, but by a creeping sense that the party has lost its moral and strategic compass.  

The ODM–UDA arrangement, conceived as a broad-based national healing framework, risks becoming the very issue that alienates the party from its base if not properly explained and internalised. 

Identity crisis 

This is a critical juncture for ODM, and indeed for Kenya’s opposition politics at large.  

The fault lines visible in Central and Southern Nyanza, the eerie silence in Busia County, and the quiet retreat in Western Kenya are not isolated—they are historically familiar symptoms of a movement at the brink of identity crisis. 

The party leadership must now choose between retreating into elitist power calculations or confronting the ideological unease reverberating through its support base.  

ODM must re-learn the lessons of past political transitions—that parties rooted in mass movements must remain accountable to their base, lest they become indistinguishable from the political establishments they once opposed. 

If it fails, history may record that ODM, the party of resistance and reform, crumbled not because it lost an election, but because it lost its voice. 

Dr Chebii Z.K. is a lecturer, historian, political commentator and UASU Chapter Trustee at Alupe University, Kenya. 

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