Raila Odinga’s decision to vie for the position of chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC) is poised to have significant implications in Kenyan politics.

If successful, Raila stands to enhance his international reputation and gain a platform to champion African issues on a global scale. This could potentially bolster his political standing in Kenya, positioning him as a respected leader across the continent.

Conversely, failure to secure the AUC chairperson position could have adverse effects on his political trajectory in Kenya. It would be perceived as a setback, potentially diminishing his influence within the country’s political landscape. The outcome of this pursuit holds considerable weight for Raila’s future endeavours in domestic and international spheres.

One of the most intriguing aspects of Raila’s candidacy is the unexpected support he has received from President William Ruto, his longtime political rival. In a strategic move, Ruto has chosen to endorse Raila as the preferred candidate, despite their history of competition.

By throwing his support behind Raila’s pursuit of this role, Ruto is not only portraying himself as a generous and supportive leader but also subtly undermining the influence of his political adversaries on the home front. It’s a tactic of knowing one’s enemy and understanding their strengths and weaknesses.

Is President Ruto trading a brick for a jade by supporting Raila? Is he enticing Raila into a position that he cannot guarantee? However, Raila stands to lose a lot in his home base.

Sun Tzu famously stated: “All warfare is based on deception.” Ruto’s backing of Raila may appear as a gesture of goodwill at first glance, but its true purpose is to create division within Raila’s political support base and potentially diminish his standing in Kenya’s political sphere.

By publicly supporting Raila’s bid for the AU role, Ruto may be engaging in a form of political maneuvering designed to throw his opponent off balance. The President’s move is a shrewd display of political acumen. By aligning himself with Raila’s aspirations, Ruto is not only positioning himself as a unifier but also strategically weakening the unity of his opponents.

The backing of Raila may sow seeds of doubt and mistrust among Raila’s supporters, potentially causing rifts and fractures within the Azimio coalition. By appearing to support Raila on the surface, Ruto can undermine his credibility and sow discord within the ranks, ultimately weakening Raila’s political influence and power.

Ruto can infiltrate his opponent’s camp and exploit any existing divisions or vulnerabilities. By elevating Raila to an international position, Ruto is not only removing him from the domestic political scene but also gaining favour with his supporters.

As Sun Tzu also said, the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. Ruto’s support for Raila is a subtle yet powerful tactic on the political battlefield, this calculated move showcases Ruto’s strategic prowess in politics.

Ruto’s alignment with Raila’s bid for the AU position strategically positions him as a key player in regional and international affairs. This move not only strengthens his political network but also highlights his diplomatic skills in building relationships with key stakeholders.

By positioning himself as a significant player in regional and international affairs, Ruto is solidifying his reputation as a leader who can effectively engage on a global scale and contribute to shaping the future of Africa.

If Raila secures the seat, his leadership at the African Union will present an opportunity for Africa, as he could champion critical issues like economic development, peace, and human rights.

His position could facilitate collaboration with international organizations, shaping Africa’s future and cementing his legacy as a forward-thinking leader.

No matter what, let’s wish Baba success.

— The writer is an Innovations Evangelist and a PhD candidate —[email protected]