A total of 73,480 registered voters in Ol Kalou Constituency will on Thursday, July 16, 2026, elect a new Member of Parliament in a contest that has become a political battle between President William Ruto and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) will conduct voting in 144 polling stations spread across Rurii, Kanjuiri Ridge, Karau, Kaimbaga and Mirangine wards.

Although nine candidates are contesting the seat, the campaign has largely narrowed to United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Samuel Muchina and Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Sammy Kamau Ngotho.

Muchina is seeking to deliver the constituency to President Ruto’s UDA, while Ngotho is carrying Gachagua’s bid to demonstrate that DCP commands support in Mt Kenya.

Jubilee Party has fielded Wilson Kigwa in an attempt to retain the seat previously held by the late David Kiaraho. Six other candidates are also on the ballot.

Why the result matters to Ruto and Gachagua

A UDA victory would allow Ruto’s allies to argue that the ruling party remains dominant in Nyandarua and Mt Kenya region at large, despite Gachagua’s sustained campaign against the government.

A DCP victory would strengthen Gachagua’s claim that Mt Kenya voters have shifted away from UDA following his fallout with Ruto and removal from the deputy presidency.

Nyandarua backed Ruto heavily in the 2022 presidential election, when he received about 78.76 per cent of the county’s vote.

However, Ol Kalou voters elected Kiaraho on a Jubilee ticket instead of UDA’s Ngotho, showing that they can split their votes between presidential and parliamentary candidates.

Kiaraho represented Ol Kalou for three consecutive terms after winning the seat in 2013, 2017 and 2022. His death on March 29, 2026, created the vacancy leading to the by-election.

IEBC faces credibility test

The election is also a major test for the IEBC ahead of the 2027 General Election.

IEBC chairperson Erastus Ethekon has raised concerns over voter bribery, night campaigns, violence and the involvement of Cabinet secretaries and principal secretaries in the campaigns.

The commission dispatched investigators to Ol Kalou and warned that candidates found responsible for electoral offences could face sanctions.

Ethekon also said the election could be postponed or cancelled if security conditions prevented the commission from conducting a credible poll.

The winner will complete Kiaraho’s remaining parliamentary term.

Politically, however, the result will be interpreted as an early measure of whether Ruto or Gachagua currently commands greater influence in Nyandarua and the wider Mt Kenya region.