The parliamentary by-election, which is slated to take place on July 16, is now much more than a contest to replace the late MP David Kiaraho.

The conflict is now emerging as the biggest political clash between President William Ruto and his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, whose outcome is likely to determine the power dynamics in Mount Kenya ahead of the 2027 general election.

President Ruto would save the seat by keeping UDA’s candidate, thus affirming his continued dominance over the region, which was the big winner in the 2022 elections.

The ruling party has deployed Cabinet Secretaries, Principal Secretaries and high-ranking government officials to campaign in the area and has unveiled development projects worth billions of shillings in the constituency, highlighting the value it gives to the race.

Gachagua’s biggest test comes now.

With the opposition candidate, Gachagua of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), clinching the support of his party in the by-election, the event offers him a chance to demonstrate his political mobilisation capabilities as the most influential player in the region, even after his differences with President Ruto.

The ex-Deputy President has been saying Kenyans’ loyalty to the Kenya Kwanza government has waned in Mount Kenya. If the opposition wins at Ol Kalou, it will enhance that story and give them a head start towards the 2027 elections.

More than a Parliamentary seat

When it comes to politics, Ol Kalou has become a referendum on the current Mount Kenya vote winners.

The by-election has drawn the nation’s attention, with both sides viewing it as a symbolic contest rather than a typical parliamentary election. The ground-level tensions and increased campaigning are evidence of the importance of the stakes.

Ruto’s supporters say that an eventual win would prove to the world the government’s continued popularity in the region. Some of his allies have even said that a UDA victory would mean the president would have a strong chance of winning a firm chunk of the Mount Kenya votes in 2027.

Conversely, an opposition win will be seen as a sign that Gachagua’s sway is still in play and that the political environment in Mount Kenya is changing sides from the ruling coalition.

Countdown to July 16

But just one week before the voters cast their votes, Ol Kalou has become the country’s political hub. The byelection, which was supposed to be a simple election, has become a high-stakes poll that could impact campaign strategies, coalitions and political calculations leading up to the 2027 general election.

The outcome will most likely be taken as a positive sign of who has the political leg up in the Kenyan capital and in Mount Kenya, the country’s largest voter population, at this moment between President Ruto and his close rival, Cabinet Secretary for Information and Public Relations Rigathi Gachagua.