Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua recently reached out to former President Uhuru Kenyatta with an olive branch, aiming to reconcile and mend their differences.

This gesture came at a critical time for the Mt Kenya region, as there is a power struggle among leaders of the ruling UDA party, putting Kenya’s second-in-command in a delicate position.

Is Gachagua’s olive branch a strategic political move in a larger power struggle, or is it a sincere attempt at reconciliation? The dynamics of power in this scenario are intricate and captivating.

Let’s rewind for a moment. After 40 years in power, the Gema nation is witnessing a tussle over its leadership. It has been the kingmaker so far. This title has held water because of the Mt Kenya region’s numerical strength.

In the 2022 elections, William Ruto successfully wooed the region as part of the UDA plan, aiming to acquire Gema’s trust and then politically dismantle its influence from within.

UDA, under Ruto, executed this plan flawlessly. Although he got massive support from the mountain community, Ruto chose not to be influenced by them, liberating himself from their control. He has been the kingpin of the mountain. DP Gachagua is using his credentials to unite the divided mountain, reversing the progress made during the last general election by UDA and Raila’s Azimio coalition.

If Gachagua succeeds in becoming the central Kenya kingpin, anyone entering the mountain will have to negotiate with him. By default, he is, since he holds the second most powerful seat of power. However, things are more complicated. If he becomes too aggressive, Ruto and Raila’s factions may join forces against the mountain’s dominance, leaving Gachagua vulnerable.

Gachagua was chosen by Ruto, possibly with the expectation that his efforts to revive the mountain’s dominance would fail. Politically, Gachagua may find himself targeted by Ruto and other political forces if he pushes too hard. Could this be the reason some leaders are against the DP in the mountain?

The truth is that Gachagua’s mission to restore Kikuyu dominance is likely to fail under Ruto’s calculated leadership. Therefore, there is a need to seek an alliance with Kenyatta. This move is politically advantageous for Kenyatta. Gachagua acknowledges that Kenyatta was and is influential in the mountain.

Leaders should never openly declare their desires. Their focus should solely be on ensuring the continuation of their reign. The DP may ask Kenyatta to address the current challenges and explore potential regional solutions. By doing so, the DP may maintain his power.

He has openly expressed his desire for a truce, while Kenyatta has remained silent on the subject. This dynamic gives Kenyatta a strategic advantage in the region, as silence is perceived as power.

Let me tell you a story. A killing machine called the guillotine was invented during the French Revolution of 1789. It was then displayed in the court of a public circus for all to see. All the people of France were invited to watch the workings of this wonder, and before them stood the evil leaders who had ruined the economy. 

One by one, the leaders were placed under the killing machine, and their heads were chopped off. As the dead fell to the ground with a thud, the crowd of peasants cheered wildly. The badness of the guillotine had won the hearts of the crowds.

But the sad thing is that the man who invented this killing machine had his head chopped off by the same machine. Is this analogy reflect what is happening on the mountain? You be the judge.

— The writer is an Innovations Evangelist and a PhD candidate; [email protected]