The emergence of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) as a Mt Kenya political outfit presents both opportunities and threats for UDA and Kenya Kwanza. Critics argue that a party whose sole agenda is “one term” cannot dislodge President William Ruto, especially given his apparent success in galvanising traditional opposition support. Under conventional wisdom, numbers lost in Mt Kenya would be compensated by traditional opposition areas showing signs of shifting toward Ruto ahead of 2027.

This legacy thinking – what regime apologists call “Wakenya ni wale wale” (Kenyans never change) – assumes ethnic nationalism remains as potent as before. Historically, most Kenyans believed their insecurities stemmed from national power being held by “the other”, requiring “one of their own” in leadership.

But this belief has been debunked. Leading up to 2022, Mt Kenya complaints centred on President Uhuru Kenyatta taking development elsewhere despite being “one of their own”. Many regional leaders opposed him and Azimio, believing Ruto, though not “one of them”, offered better prospects. These leaders validated a new belief: it doesn’t have to be one of your own. Ruto’s overwhelming Mt Kenya support in 2022, like Raila’s previous Rift Valley dominance, suggests ethnic bloc mobilisation is becoming more difficult.

Unlike previous elections, this regime came to power on promises of disruptive change – unshackling the poor from wealthy elites’ control. Yet with two years to the next election, there’s limited evidence life has improved for those at the bottom. The opposite may be true.

The middle class has been rudely awakened to political choices having serious consequences. This awakening further debunks the “one of our own” belief. These hardworking, salaried Kenyans will emerge in large numbers in 2027 to protect their investments. Most parents of the emergent Gen Z – previously comfortable in their middle-class lives – have been rattled and disrupted. They will not only vote but mobilise their Gen Z children, already simmering with rage.

DCP is more than a regional competitor – it’s an assault weapon against the regime, which thrives on narratives of no formidable challenge, hoping to prepare Kenyans for Kenya Kwanza’s continued power. This belief is dangerous, encouraging voter apathy and “can’t beat them, join them” thinking. But in Mt Kenya, many will join DCP, not UDA. If the opposition’s collective agenda is removing this regime, they must use all available ammunition.

The opposition’s advantage lies in the widespread belief that this regime cannot win a free and fair election under current conditions. On the streets, people say the regime will stay in power only because “they have the system” – believing it will do everything to maintain control.

But if the system has been beaten before, and if the regime has only worsened the status quo, why can’t it be beaten again? Votes count. Whether for or against this regime, no formation has an unassailable lead or magical power to overturn majority will. President Ruto already provided a system-beating template in 2022, and he apparently has many students.

The writer is a media studies Research