Tribe is emerging as a point of discourse as we brace ourselves for yet another high-stakes electoral season.

The crossroads are too familiar to Kenyans, with alternatives presented as two: The promise of a broad-based government and the roar of The People’s Loyal Opposition.

On paper, these sound like healthy pillars of democratic consolidation, but beneath the speeches and barazas, the language of politics remains tethered to an old, dangerous formula: ethnic arithmetic masquerading as national interest.

On one side is the People’s Loyal Opposition coalescing around Kalonzo Musyoka, a seasoned politician draped in civility and nostalgia, and ousted Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, the defiant voice of a restless mountain, rallying his base with gritty populism and grievance.

This Quadrumvirate of Jubilee, Riggy G’s DCP, Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP, led by Kalonzo’s Wiper, is gaining traction with its “WANTAM” rallying call.

On the other side is the broad-based government bandied as “tano bila break” and sometimes “TUTAM” by its partisans.

Sceptics argue that the only broad aspect is tribal recalibration. By picking key leaders from ODM strongholds like Nyanza, Coast and Western Kenya, the regime isn’t healing divisions as claimed.

It’s redrawing loyalty maps. A few choice ODM stalwarts have become melodious praise singers, looking for opportunities to belt their rhetoric on the impending broad victory in 2027 based on nothing other than tribal numbers.

What appears as inclusion is political annexation, seducing local elites with appointments, assuming the common mwananchi will follow.

The People’s Loyal Opposition is on a trajectory that Kalonzo is happy to ride as he emerges from Raila Odinga’s long shadow. His crafting of a narrative positions him as the rational, moderate figure

Kenya’s needs are punctuated by Riggy G, who continues his relentless campaign to keep Mt Kenya politically central, even if that means tearing at the fragile fabric of national unity.

If Kalonzo seeks to inherit The Mountain, he must deal with Riggy G’s antagonistic rhetoric and many Mountain natives who still believe that, between President William Ruto and these perennial politicians, they would still choose Ruto.

Both sides operate on an old political operating system: one that prioritises ethnic arithmetic over national vision, loyalty over competence, and survival over transformation. It is why Kalonzo’s team tolerates Riggy G despite his despicable tribal vitriol.  

Neither side has convincingly outlined how to rescue Kenyans from the chokehold of debt, stagnation of devolution, abductions and human rights violations, the tragedy of our education system, or brutal youth unemployment.

What we’re witnessing isn’t a contest of ideas, but a reshuffling of familiar cards. It is ethnic calibration as leaders march towards the next election, bereft of ideas to secure the next generation.

Kenya faces overlapping crises: economic strain, institutional erosion, and social fragmentation.

Kenyans whose payslips are raided, whose children face punitive higher education funding and joblessness upon graduation, yearn for leadership that can dream beyond tribe, speak beyond slogans, and act beyond self-interest.

Leadership that transcends Kalonzo’s centrist ambiguity, Riggy G’s abrasive parochialism, and the mirage of broad-based government masquerading as unity yet recalibrating ethnic arithmetic.

The writer is a media studies researcher