Saitabao Ole Kanchory, the former presidential chief agent of the late Raila Odinga in the 2022 poll, has delivered a political bombshell.

Through a post on X on Sunday, November 30, 2025, Kanchory stated that it is now clear that President William Ruto’s popularity is no more.

Also Watch: Prof. Kivutha Kibwana: I wish that in 2027 we won’t do tribal politics.

He, however, argued that in Kenya, popularity does not determine election victories.

According to him, the country’s electoral system has been compromised for years and remains vulnerable.

Kanchory predicts Ruto’s win

Kanchory insisted that election outcomes in Kenya are shaped by control of electoral structures rather than votes cast.

“William Ruto is no doubt the most unpopular president in the history of Kenya. However, because we have normalized electoral fraud, our politics is not a popularity contest. It is a game of numbers and whoever can play with the numbers wins. It’s that simple everything else is hot air,” he wrote.

He further lamented Kenya’s weakened electoral institutions, comparing the current system to the one that oversaw the 2002 transition.

“Even Moi who never claimed to be a democrat gave Kenyans an independent electoral commission in 2002 and that was before electoral integrity was constitutionalised in 2010,” he noted.

Kanchory concluded by expressing disbelief that anyone thinks President Ruto can be defeated at the ballot in 2027 when he allegedly controls the electoral commission.

“I still can’t believe people think they can beat Ruto when he controls IEBC,” he added.

By-elections aftermath

Kanchory’s remarks come just days after President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance Party and Kenya Kwanza partners secured sweeping victories in several mini polls held across the country.

From Mbeere North to Kasipul, Malava, Banisa, Magarini and the Baringo Senatorial seat, the ruling coalition bagged crucial wins, tightening its grip ahead of 2027.

The clean sweep has emboldened Kenya Kwanza leaders who now view 2027 as theirs to lose. Analysts say the by election victories, combined with the disjointed nature of the opposition, give Ruto a strong head start.

Kanchory’s admission adds to growing debate on whether the opposition is prepared for 2027 or whether internal fragmentation and lack of electoral strategy could hand the President an easy return to office.

His statement has already triggered reactions across political circles, with critics accusing him of discouraging the opposition, while supporters say he is simply stating hard truths about Kenya’s electoral environment.