Pauline Odhiambo Oginga, the step-sister to the late Raila Odinga, has expressed her disappointment with the current state of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), saying that President William Ruto can access the Nyanza region without any support from Orange Party leaders.

While speaking during an interview on Herman Manyora’s podcast aired on Saturday, April 18, 2026, she stated that ODM top party officials should be held solely responsible for the situation.

She accused them of entertaining Ruto too much, allowing him to make inroads into their strongholds without their knowledge, only to later realise that he had already gained significant ground.

According to her, Ruto can now freely hold rallies and engage with locals in Nyanza without seeking permission or going through local political leaders such as Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga.

Pauline used the analogy of a camel, saying that it only asked to let its head in from the hot sun, but gradually ended up fully inside. She further warned that this situation could lead to massive casualties in 2027, coupled with the loss of Raila Odinga, who previously endorsed most leaders.

“It is sad that Ruto can reach the ground in Nyanza without the ODM leaders, and even the people at the grassroots have said that with or without the support of Nyanza leaders, they want development from this government,” Pauline Oginga observed.

“They opened the door, and he has entered. So in the story of the camel, the camel said, ‘Let me just put my head in a little bit.’ The sun is too hot. Then slowly, the camel started moving in. Then before you know it, the tent is down,” she stated.

“So we allowed him, I think, into our space, too much into our space. So we are realising this guy has roots within our strongholds,” she added.

She argued that with what she termed as “the king’s fall” and Ruto making inroads into Nyanza, some politicians’ chances of re-election would be significantly reduced.

According to her, the 2027 elections will mark the first time the people of Nyanza will make independent political decisions, unlike in the past when the late Raila Odinga largely influenced who got elected.

She further contends that this will be one of the key avenues President Ruto will use to deepen his political influence in the Nyanza region.

Sifuna’s perspective

This perspective by Pauline Odhiambo Oginga mirrors the one for Nairobi senator Edwin Sifuna, who also recently came out to express concern over the poor state of the ODM party.

Sifuna noted that counties like Homa Bay were once firmly ODM zones, where zoning discussions were unnecessary because the party’s dominance was unquestioned.

However, he lamented that the party has weakened to the point where it now has to negotiate zoning arrangements with other parties.

Sifuna blames ODM leaders

He also blamed ODM leaders for allowing Ruto to penetrate their strongholds, arguing that the president has since established a firm political presence in areas that were once considered ODM bastions.

“For the first time I have never heard of zoning in Homa Bay. We have reached a place where we are asking for zoning in Homa Bay; when ODM was strong, we never cared who ran against us,” he stated.