Political analyst Herman Manyora has stated that it could be an early win for former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero if he is backed by President William Ruto to unseat Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga.

Speaking during his daily analysis on Friday, April 18, 2026, the outspoken analyst argued that Wanga defeated Kidero in 2022 largely due to the support of the late Raila Odinga, then leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

He claimed that with Odinga no longer actively backing her in the same way, Wanga is now highly vulnerable.

Manyora further outlined another scenario, suggesting that President Ruto could also use former Homa Bay Deputy Governor Charles Magwanga—who recently resigned after a fallout with Wanga—as a conduit to gain influence in the county.

He warned that Wanga may face a difficult path to re-election in 2027, adding that her current political challenges are partly self-inflicted.

“If Ruto supports Kidero, he will beat Wanga. Wanga won against Kidero in 2022 because Raila held her hand and she knows it, or he can just use a person like Magwanga, a known enemy of Wanga.”

According to Manyora, Wanga allowed Ruto to make inroads into Homa Bay, a move that has enabled the President to entrench himself among local voters. He described Ruto as a shrewd politician who, once given even a small opportunity, works persistently to expand his influence.

Sifuna’s take

These remarks come days after Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna expressed disappointment over the current state of ODM and its traditional strongholds.

Sifuna noted that counties like Homa Bay were once firmly ODM zones, where zoning discussions were unnecessary because the party’s dominance was unquestioned.

 However, he lamented that the party has weakened to the point where it now has to negotiate zoning arrangements with other parties.

Sifuna blames ODm leaders

He also blamed ODM leaders for allowing Ruto to penetrate their strongholds, arguing that the President has since established a firm political presence in areas that were once considered ODM bastions.

“For the first time I have never heard of zoning in Homa Bay. We have reached a place where we are asking for zoning in Homa Bay; when ODM was strong, we never cared who ran against us,” he stated.