Political analyst Herman Manyora has argued that for President William Ruto to stand a realistic chance of winning a second term in 2027, he must secure at least 25 per cent of the votes from the Mt Kenya region.

Speaking during his daily political analysis on Friday, July 17, 2026, the outspoken political commentator opined that, as things currently stand, Ruto’s political fortunes in the vote-rich region are bleak, especially following the outcome of the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election.

“For Ruto to stand a chance of being re-elected, he must get at least 25 percents of Mt Kenya votes in 2027.”

Manyora noted that despite the government’s heavy presence in the constituency and the deployment of top Kenya Kwanza leaders to campaign for the UDA candidate, Sammy Kamau, the ruling party managed to secure only about 13 per cent of the total votes cast. He argued that the result paints a worrying picture for the president’s support in Mt Kenya ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Mt Kenya’s revolt against Ruto

The professor further stated that the mountain’s growing revolt against President Ruto is largely a result of the head of state surrounding himself with leaders whom many residents of the region consider political traitors. According to Manyora, those leaders have already been rejected by the electorate, and instead of helping the president regain support, they are further damaging his standing in the region.

He argued that if Ruto hopes to revive his re-election prospects, he must work with respected, experienced and politically influential leaders from Mt Kenya who still command the trust of the people. Such leaders, he said, would be better placed to help the President reconnect with voters in the region that overwhelmingly backed him during the 2022 general election.

Current political temperatures

Manyora warned that if the current political trend continues, the President could struggle to improve on the approximately 13 per cent support reflected in the Ol Kalou by-election, making his path to securing even a quarter of the Mt Kenya vote an uphill task.

He maintained that without winning at least 25 per cent of the region’s votes, President Ruto’s chances of securing a second term in 2027 would be significantly diminished.