Orwoba predicts major loss for UDA party in upcoming by-elections
By Mabonga Makhanu, November 19, 2025Former nominated senator Gloria Orwoba has predicted a resounding defeat for the United Democratic Alliance in the upcoming November 27 by-elections.
Orwoba, who was recently replaced in her nomination position by Consolata Wakwabubi, shared her thoughts on her social media handles on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, expressing little hope for her former party that she worked hard to see assume power, in winning in the areas where they have fielded candidates for the upcoming minipolls.
She warned that UDA is likely to lose Mbeere North, Malava, Magharini, and all three wards in Nyamira, signalling a significant shift in voter sentiment.
Orwoba, who for the recent past has endeared herself to the united opposition, has also forecasted that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) could lose the Kasipul seat, where they have Boyd as their candidate, who is competing against an independent candidate, Philip Aroko.
She suggested that the by-elections might produce surprises for multiple parties and reshape the political landscape in these regions.
“UDA will lose Mbeere North. UDA will lose Malava. UDA will lose Magharini. UDA will lose all 3 Nyamira Wards Then… ODM will lose Kasipul,” she added.
She has further argued that the outcomes would expose the vulnerabilities of the ruling party and challenge its dominance in areas it has traditionally relied upon.
Ruto’s reaction
In addition to her electoral predictions, Orwoba speculated on the potential reaction of President William Samoei Ruto to the anticipated setbacks. She suggested that the president, known for his reluctance to accept losses quietly, would take personal steps to manage the situation.
According to her, the president might refuse to agree with the results and resort to using excessive force in managing the outcome of the elections
Orwoba further hinted that these developments could lead to a cabinet reshuffle as the government seeks to stabilise its position and respond to the political challenges posed by the by-elections.
With only 19 months remaining until the 2027 general elections, she emphasised that the political contest is far from over, and the November 27 by-elections will serve as an early indicator of the parties’ standing and strategies in the run-up to the national polls.
There comes a time when there are heightened campaigns in the selected byelection areas, with both candidates and parties camping in the byelection areas, soliciting support for their candidates