Embakasi North MP James Gakuya has compared the ongoing turmoil in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) to the bitter succession battles that fractured the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) after Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s era.

“What is happening today is quite a replica of what happened those old days,” Gakuya said, recalling how FORD split following disagreements between Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and the late Kenneth Matiba, which led to the formation of Ford Kenya and Ford Asili.

He highlighted the wrangles when Raila Odinga sought to succeed his father in Ford Kenya, culminating in Raila’s exit to form the National Development Party (NDP).

“This one is a bit tricky because it is not a battle of their own… This is external interest, external forces,” Gakuya warned, pointing to President William Ruto.

“The Head of State is very determined to run away with ODM, but it is not going to be easy. Even if an exam were done today, nobody would beat Sifuna and his team. One may move with the party leader and his team, leaving the people with Sifuna’s indigenous team.”

Historical parallels

Gakuya’s remarks come as ODM faces a deepening crisis following the death of Raila Odinga in October 2025. The party, long held together by Raila’s towering presence, now confronts familiar risks of fragmentation.

Historical parallels with FORD are clear: after Jaramogi’s death, leadership disputes accelerated defections that weakened the party’s national appeal, while Raila’s departure with loyalists marked a turning point that FORD never fully recovered from.

Factionalism in ODM

Today, ODM is experiencing similar divisions, with factions emerging around Raila’s family members. EALA MP Winnie Odinga, supported by her brother Raila Junior, has opposed expulsions and warned against hasty succession attempts.

“Nobody will be removed from the party… If we leave, we will leave with the people,” she said at Kamukunji grounds in Kibra on January 18, 2026. “Raila left us just a while ago. Relax… As a family, we do not belong to any faction. We remain team Raila.”

Acting party leader Oburu Oginga’s earlier remarks suggesting dissatisfied members could leave stirred controversy, although he later clarified no expulsions were intended. Ideological rifts over possible cooperation with President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) have further exposed vulnerabilities, echoing FORD’s earlier assumption that one leader’s charisma could seamlessly transfer.