Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has claimed that the outcome of the Ol Kalou by-election confirms what he has long maintained, that support for President William Ruto has significantly declined across the Mount Kenya region.

Speaking during an interview on a local TV station on Wednesday, July 22, 2026, Gachagua said he was never surprised by the by-election results, arguing that the vote merely validated what he had observed through his engagements with residents across the region since leaving office.

“I knew that it would come. I knew the win was certain. I was just waiting for the margin because I know the mountain,” Gachagua said.

The former deputy president dismissed claims that the outcome was unexpected, insisting that only President Ruto’s allies were caught off guard.

“Ol Kalou has shocked William Ruto and his people because they live in denial. It has not shocked me. Ruto and his people thrive on lies and deception, and they believe that money is everything,” he said.

According to Gachagua, the Ol Kalou by-election is not an isolated political event but a reflection of a broader political shift that has been taking place in Mount Kenya for months.

He claimed that after interacting extensively with residents following his exit from government, he concluded that the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) had already lost the confidence of voters in the region.

“I knew when I talked to the people of the mountain since I left office. UDA was dead. William Ruto was finished in the mountain, and I knew that because I am a man who listens to the ground. I talk to the people,” he said.

Gachagua argued that unlike other parts of the country where political dissatisfaction is often expressed through demonstrations, Mount Kenya residents tend to remain quiet even when frustrated.

“The people of the mountain don’t talk much. Even when they’re hungry, they just sing. You don’t see them coming into the streets to riot. The mountain people are quiet people,” he said.

He added that this reserved nature had led some political observers to misread public sentiment in the region.

Ol Kalou was just confirmation

Gachagua said he had already concluded as early as October 2024 that President Ruto’s political fortunes in Mount Kenya had deteriorated.

“So I knew since October 2024 that UDA was dead, and William Ruto, his fate was sealed. Ol Kalou was just a confirmation of what I knew,” he stated.

He maintained that voters were sending a clear political message ahead of the next General Election.

“The people of the mountain were just confirming what they know and what they intend to do in the coming general election,” he said.

According to Gachagua, the by-election result now provides opposition leaders with confidence as they prepare for the next electoral contest.

“It gives us evidence now to activate the final phase as we go towards the next general election,” he said.

Gachagua declares political  divorce

Using the analogy of a marriage ending, Gachagua described the relationship between Mount Kenya voters and President Ruto as one that has reached an irreversible conclusion.

“Our marriage with William Ruto is over. It has been over for the last two years. This is just a confirmation,” he said.

He extended the metaphor further, saying the Ol Kalou outcome represented the final stage of the political separation.

“This is the divorce. The final papers. The divorce has been there, going back and forth, but the final proclamation has been done, and the marriage is irreversibly broken.”

Gachagua added that both political camps should now prepare for a direct contest in the next General Election rather than attempting to rebuild the former alliance.

“The mountain has moved on, and we expect William Ruto to move on so that everybody just moves in his own direction, and then we’ll face each other in the next general election,” he said.

Gachagua’s remarks are likely to intensify political debate over the future of Mount Kenya, a region that played a pivotal role in President Ruto’s 2022 electoral victory. His comments suggest he believes voter sentiment has shifted decisively, with the Ol Kalou by-election serving as evidence of changing political dynamics.

While Gachagua portrays the result as confirmation of a growing political realignment, the significance of the by-election in predicting future national elections remains a matter of political debate. Nonetheless, his statements underscore the increasing importance of Mount Kenya in shaping the country’s political landscape ahead of the next General Election.

The former deputy president maintains that the by-election was not a surprise but rather the clearest indication yet that, in his view, the political partnership between President Ruto and the Mount Kenya electorate has come to an end.