The recent Emurua Dikirr by-election has reignited debate over whether the outcome signalled growing political momentum for the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua or exposed early cracks in President William Ruto’s traditional support base.

While UDA candidate David Keter won the seat, the performance by DCP’s Vincent Rotich has become a major talking point in national politics, especially coming amid fresh polling data showing the young party making rapid gains across the country.

New survey findings released by TIFA Research indicate that DCP, barely a year after its formation and association with Gachagua, has surged into the ranks of Kenya’s top political parties.

The poll released on Thursday, May 14, 2026, shows DCP now enjoys 16 per cent national support, nearly tying with ODM at 18 per cent and UDA at 17 per cent.

TIFA noted that in statistical terms, ODM, UDA and DCP are “nearly equal” in popularity given the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 per cent.

The survey was conducted between May 2 and May 11, 2026, through face-to-face interviews with 2,013 respondents across all 47 counties.

The findings mark a significant rise for DCP, whose support has jumped from six per cent in November 2025 to the current 16 per cent.

For President Ruto and his allies, the numbers could represent an early warning sign ahead of the 2027 General Election.

This is particularly because DCP is no longer confined to Mt Kenya, where Gachagua has largely anchored his anti-government campaign.

According to the poll, DCP commands 39 per cent support in Mt Kenya, making it the region’s leading political vehicle ahead of Jubilee Party at 16 per cent and UDA at seven per cent.

More concerning for State House strategists is the party’s growing traction in the Rift Valley, traditionally viewed as President Ruto’s political stronghold.

The survey shows DCP attracting 20 per cent support in the Central Rift and 17 per cent in the South Rift.

Although UDA remains dominant in the Central Rift with 31 per cent support, DCP’s emergence as the second force in the region points to growing discontent within Kenya Kwanza ranks.

The Emurua Dikirr by-election appears to have reinforced that perception.

Despite losing the seat, DCP candidate Vincent Rotich garnered 10,760 votes, a performance the party has presented as proof that it can compete effectively even in regions historically loyal to President Ruto and UDA.

However, UDA leaders dismissed claims that the result reflected waning support for the President.

UDA director of communications Nathan Mong’are told the Star that Rotich’s votes reflected local political dynamics and the personal appeal of candidates rather than a protest vote against the ruling party.

“The votes Vincent got were not in protest against the UDA. Come election, those who voted for Dollarline and Vincent will vote for Ruto,” Mong’are said.

The game of numbers

He added that Emurua Dikirr has always had unique political dynamics, noting that even former MP Johanna Ng’eno previously struggled to secure large winning margins.

“Mzee Johanna used to win with margins of 2,000 or 3,000 votes. This cannot be compared with Keter’s margin of about 9,000 votes,” he said.

Mong’are also questioned the credibility of the TIFA poll.

“We don’t believe the pollster at all. Past elections have proven that they are not accurate. In 2022, they said our secretary general Hassan Omar had a six per cent rating, yet he got 44 per cent in the election,” he said.

Still, the by-election outcome has energised Gachagua and his allies, who are increasingly positioning DCP as a national movement capable of challenging the ruling coalition beyond Mt Kenya.

In a lengthy statement after the results, Gachagua described Rotich’s performance as splendid, which has shaken South Rift politics.

“A score of 10,760 votes is no mean feat,” Gachagua said while congratulating party supporters and campaigners.

“The DCP Party has made a heroic entry in Kenyan politics and is undoubtedly the most credible alternative vehicle to all aspirants who do not enjoy the favour of the ruling and corrupt elite,” Gachagua said.

He also praised Emurua Dikirr voters for showing independence of mind and resisting intimidation.

The former deputy president has intensified criticism of the Kenya Kwanza administration in recent months following his impeachment and removal from office.

TIFA noted that Gachagua’s political activities are increasingly shaping the opposition landscape, particularly in Mt Kenya, where he has remained actively engaged in grassroots mobilisation.

The survey further indicates that Gachagua retains significant influence within the Kikuyu community.

At least 70 per cent of respondents who acknowledged the existence of an ethnic political leader identified Gachagua as that figure.

Even so, the data suggests he still faces hurdles in translating DCP’s growing popularity into a viable national presidential bid.

In the preferred 2027 presidential race, Gachagua is rated at nine per cent support, while President Ruto leads with 24 per cent.

Ruto is followed by Kalonzo Musyoka at 19 per cent, Fred Matiang’i at 14 per cent and Edwin Sifuna at 10 per cent.

The poll also suggests that continued opposition fragmentation could ultimately strengthen President Ruto’s re-election prospects despite DCP’s rapid rise.