As the clock ticks towards the 2027 elections Nakuru County is witnessing an evolving political landscape as cracks emerge on the Kikuyu-Kalenjin political marriage.

The political pact between the two dominant ethnic communities has in the past three elections determined the region’s political trajectory.

The UDA dominance in the county which solidly backed President Ruto’s bid has been waning as members of the Kikuyu community rally behind impeached deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

The Kikuyu community is the dominant ethnic group in the populous and highly cosmopolitan county with members of the Kalenjin community forming the second largest voting bloc. There are pockets of voters from the Luo, the Luhya, the Kisii and Kamba voters. The county also has pockets of voters from the Somali, Turkana and Maasai communities.

The Kikuyus in Nakuru town have the tradition of voting with their counterparts in the Mt Kenya region, where the residents have been drifting away from President Ruto administration due to a multiplicity of factors.

The emerging cracks on the Kalenjin-Kikuyu pact which was launched in 2013 is the key driver to the changed political landscape in the county. However, some contenders for the top county seats are in a dilemma of how to proceed given that they each want to enlist the support of different ethnic communities in the county.

Since the onset of the devolved system of government, gubernatorial aspirants from the Kikuyu community have been picking members of the Kalenjin community as their running mates.

Changing dynamics

Political pundits in the county opine that with the rapidly changing political dynamics in the country majority of members of the Kalenjin community are unlikely to abandon President Ruto in his bid for a second term.

The emerging political dynamics are informing the thinking of aspirants from the Kikuyu community who feel that they are unlikely to tap a significant number of votes from the Kalenjin voting bloc.

The entry of the Hon Gachagua led Democratic Citizen Party (DCP) has electrified a large section of Kikuyu voters in Nakuru County who perceive it as the party of their choice.

Scores of gubernatorial and senatorial aspirants and those eyeing woman rep and other parliamentary seats are now angling themselves to use the party as their vehicle ahead of the 2027 elections.

The DCP leadership has launched an aggressive campaign to popularize the outfit to enable it secure a large number of electoral seats come the elections. The recent entry of prominent lawyer Lawrence Karanja into the DCP ranks has reinvigorated the party’s base.

Karanja, who contested for the Senate seat in the last elections under the Jubilee Party and came second to Senator Tabitha Karanja, brings experience and credibility to the movement. His shift is seen as a strategic gain for the party as it seeks to build momentum ahead of the polls. Adding to the growing list of influential figures aligning themselves with DCP is former NHIF CEO CPA Geoffrey Mwangi.

Mwangi has declared his intent to run for Nakuru governor on the DCP ticket, setting the stage for a fierce showdown with the incumbent, Governor Susan Kihika.

Sources close to the party say Mwangi and Karanja are collaborating on a robust grassroots strategy to popularize the DCP party and present a united front. DCP’s emergence is beginning to echo the path previously taken by UDA, which swept 10 out of 11 parliamentary seats in the county during the last elections.

UDA stalwarts Governor Susan Kihika, Woman Representative Liza Chelule, and Senator Tabitha Karanja campaigned vigorously to secure their seats, defeating their main challengers from Jubilee and other parties. As DCP continues to attract high-profile aspirants, the political atmosphere in Nakuru is becoming increasingly charged.