Political analyst Barrack Muluka has predicted that there could be a looming crisis within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party that will threaten its existence, 20 years after the political outfit was founded by the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

Speaking in a local TV interview on Monday, October 27, 2025, Muluka noted that leaders within the ODM party are not genuine in the way they talk about the future of ODM in the absence of its leader, Raila Odinga, who passed on earlier in October 2025.

ODM deputy party leader and Kisii Governor Simba Arati has been vocal, asking President William Ruto to ditch his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party and seek his re-election in 2027 on an ODM ticket. According to Muluka, Arati’s call puts the broad-based pact between ODM and UDA at risk, making it possible for ODM to crack and members to defect to other parties.

ODM fallout

”There are likely to be a lot of things happening in the ODM party, including fallout. The ‘warriors’ will not cave in, rather be willing to migrate to other parties,” Muluka said.

Nuluka also noted that Simba Arati does not speak genuinely regarding ODM’s stand in the broad-based government.

”Simba Arati has belonged so far to the strand of ODM that has been hostile to the so-called broad-based government. I must interrogate myself and ask whether he speaks out of genuine persuasion that it is the way to go, or whether he speaks with a turning cheek; I would suppose that it is the latter,” Muluka added.

Kaluma insists on unity

Meanwhile, Homa Bay Town Member of Parliament (MP) Peter Kaluma has insisted that ODM and the larger Luo community are firmly in the broad-based government and will support President Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027.

For many years, Raila Odinga has been the unifying factor of the Luo community, shaping both regional and national politics until his demise on Wednesday, October 15, 2025, in India.

Raila’s death has sparked mixed reactions on the political future of his community and his party, ODM, which is marking its 20th anniversary.

”The Luo Community is and will remain united. The Luo Community is and will remain in the ODM party. The Luo Community is and will remain in the Broad-Based Government. Thank you, Baba Raila Odinga. May God Shine Eternal Light Upon Your Soul,” Kaluma took to X on Sunday, October 26, 2025