A newly published survey by the Central Bank of Kenya has given a mixed signal in the retail and wholesale sectors for the coming days.

The Agriculture Sector Survey report summarises findings from the study conducted from March 10 to 14, 2025. It was performed to obtain indicative information on recent trends and market expectations of prices and output of key agricultural commodities to inform monetary policy.

From the findings, Kenyans are expected to dig deep into their pockets to purchase specific basic items. The Balance of Opinion (BOO) on expected price changes shows that prices of key food items are expected to increase in April 2025, mainly cereals and select vegetables.

“Respondents expect prices of maize products and related items to be relatively higher in April 2025 relative to March 2025, mainly reflecting seasonal patterns,” the CBK survey uploaded late on Thursday, April 17, 2025, read in part.

In addition, respondents expected the prices of sugar, cooking fat and cooking oil (salad) to pick up, reflecting developments in the global market where prices of these items have been rising in the recent past.

Most of the respondents told the central bank that sugar is expected to record a 27 per cent jump, while salad is expected to hit a 32 per cent increase during the same period.

CBK’s survey further revealed that tomato prices are expected to shoot, reflecting the expected decline in supply due to the long rains set to pound in the coming weeks. Brown rice, bread and tomatoes are also expected to increase this April.

Decrease in prices

Nonetheless, CBK’s survey announced that fast-growing vegetable items, particularly kales (sukuma wiki), traditional vegetables, cabbages and spinach are, however, expected to decline in April 2025.

It noted that the decline will be supported by the expected rains in the coming weeks.

The prices are expected to affect various parts of the country as the survey drew 312 respondents from wholesale traders, retailers, and farmers in select towns nationwide (Nairobi Metropolitan area, and neighbouring counties including Kiambu, Kajiado and Machakos, Naivasha area, Gilgil Nakuru, Narok, Bomet, Kericho Kisumu, Mombasa, Kisii, Eldoret, Kitale, Nyandarua, Nyahururu, Mwea, Machakos, Isebania, Meru, Nyeri, Isiolo, Oloitoktok, Namanga, Makueni, Molo, Kakamega and Bungoma).

With the prices expected to stabilise afterwards, most farmers raised concerns over increased middlemen and brokers. 75 per cent of the sampled retailers and wholesalers cited middlemen as a key factor driving prices compared to 71 per cent in January 2025.