Donald Trump has romped home in what was essentially a landslide victory in the US presidential election, whitewashing his challenger, Vice President Kamala Harris, and her Democratic Party.
Trump’s victory represents one of the greatest political comebacks in the history of that country. It was made even more emphatic because his Republican Party retook control of the Senate, and was well on its way to keeping its control of Congress.
But what can Kenya expect from the second coming of Trump?
A key dynamic with the incoming Trump presidency is that he is already a known entity. The biggest issue between Kenya and the US currently is the bilateral trade deal that has straggled on since 2018, and is yet to be concluded.
In 2018, President Uhuru Kenyatta met with his then counterpart Trump in Washington, where they agreed to negotiate a trade pact between the two countries.
Negotiations frozen
The trade agreement was described as a comprehensive, high-standard agreement that would serve as a model for future agreements between the US and other African countries.
Two years later, Trump was bundled out of the White House. The new administration of Joe Biden froze those negotiations, as it sought to realign it to its priorities.
The talks would not begin until two years later under a new government in Kenya, after President William Ruto won the presidential election.
The negotiations transitioned from a trade pact to what is dubbed the Kenya-US Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP). Negotiating teams from the two countries have been racing against the clock in an attempt to finalise a deal, so that outgoing Biden can sign it off as part of his legacy.
Unfortunately, he has entered his lame-duck period (between the election of a new president and the handover of power on January 20, 2025) and it is unlikely that he will sign it off in this period.
If it remains unconcluded by the time Trump takes over, it will definitely be affected by the transition. The US faces huge domestic challenges, which is why Americans voted for Trump to come sort them out. As a consequence, it will be a while before he finishes addressing the urgent issues at home to focus on foreign matters.
It is an anxious time for Kenya, as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), under which Kenyan exports have been entering the US market duty-free, expires in less than a year, in September 2025, with no word of its extension so far.
Quick resolution
However, the trade deal with Kenya is Trump’s baby. It will probably be one of the issues he will want to have dealt with as soon as possible in his presidency, especially because it aligns perfectly with his agenda of creating the greatest economy in the world. Kenyans can expect a quick resolution, and the benefits to be rolled out briskly.
One of the biggest ‘wars’ that Trump fought as president was with China. The US and China are in a huge war over global hegemony, especially over economic influence. The US has demonstrated a renewed ambition to take on China in Africa, and reassert itself back in the centre from where it was displaced by China.
It is clear that the US has identified Kenya as the arrowhead in that battle. This is likely to play well for Kenya as Trump positions his troops on the continent, especially sub-Saharan Africa.
Since the battle is primarily economic, Kenya stands to benefit from increased trade and investment with the US.
Further, Kenya now has a champion in Trump’s inner circle – South African-born billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk. Musk used his social media platform X to campaign very aggressively for Trump, spending $100 million (Sh13 billion) of his personal money on the campaigns. Trump has said Musk would be appointed to a key position in his government.
President Ruto’s personal intervention to smoothen the entry of Musk’s Starlink internet service provider into Kenya, where it has been highly successful, might have been an investment whose dividend he will start reaping during the Trump presidency.
Any benefits that Kenya might have reaped from being named the only non-Nato ally of the US in sub-Saharan Africa might not materialise. Trump is a pacifier. He hates war. He hates military interventionism by the US in other countries and their politics. Indeed, he has stated that stopping the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas wars is a key priority of his administration.
During his previous tenure, there was no outbreak of war globally. Indeed, he was working to pull the US out of security zones where its forces had been embedded, such as Afghanistan.
He, therefore, has little time for militarisation. Further, he has a huge animus for Nato itself, viewing it as a conglomeration of scroungers who simply live off the US without footing their share of the organisation’s bills. In any case, he believes in strengthening the US military, and that is where defense spending is likely to be channelled.
Military bases
The reported plans for more military bases in the east African region, including Kenya, are unlikely to materialise during Trump’s presidency. Kenya would be better advised to strengthen its economic negotiation capacity to engage the incoming US administration.
One of President Ruto’s biggest global profiles is his championing of the climate change agenda. On this, he is completely at cross-purposes with Trump.
Trump has little time for all this climate-change thrust that has obsessed the world. Indeed, in his last tenure in the White House, he pulled the US out of the Paris Climate Accord.
This pact is the global agreement intended to reduce greenhouse emissions that are causing climate change. Trump has little time for those arguments.
