Kenya may soon be forced to import even more fish as Lake Victoria, once the lifeblood of East Africa’s inland fishery economy, faces a steep ecological decline.

The lake’s once-abundant tilapia and other indigenous species are vanishing under mounting pollution, threatening a billion-shilling industry that sustains millions in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. 

The economic heartbeat of the lake, particularly in Kenya, is weakening with this reckoning. This includes fishermen, processors, exporters and transporters, and thousands of people who depend on the lake’s bounty.

With the supply chain breaking down, fish volumes have plummeted, prices are surging, and processing facilities in Kisumu and elsewhere are operating below capacity. 

Some are on the brink of closure due to a lack of raw material. Nile Perch exporters face international shortfalls, while small-scale fisherfolk are spending more time and fuel to return with smaller hauls.

This decline coincides with a broader national effort to reduce reliance on imported fish.  

In 2023, Kenya cut Chinese tilapia imports by 54.4 per cent, part of a strategy to boost domestic aquaculture and protect local industry.  

But with dwindling local fish stocks, imports may remain a necessary fallback position. Chinese fish, often sold at a third of the local price, continue to distort the market and pressure Kenyan producers. 

Much of the lake’s degradation stems from unchecked pollution. Industrial effluents, untreated sewage, agricultural runoff, and plastic waste have transformed large parts of the lake into lifeless zones.

Formerly clear waters are now choked with sludge and toxins. 

Environmental scientist Prof Raphael Kapiyo warned that the lake’s ecosystem is near collapse.

Fish once visible near shorelines are now rare, and the lake has lost its biological balance. 

“We are witnessing an alarming reduction in indigenous fish species,” he said at a recent environmental forum. “Fish that were once abundant are now rare, and the lake has lost its biological balance.” Residents like George Nyabwana, chair of Asat Beach Management Unit, recall a time when the lake teemed with visible aquatic life. 

“When I was young, we would go to the lake and see fish swimming near the shore,” he says. “Today, the waters are so dirty, you can hardly spot any fish. It’s no longer safe for domestic use, let alone fishing.”

Pollution is often deliberate—factories reportedly discharge waste under the cover of night, circumventing regulations meant to protect water bodies. 

Despite laws enforced by the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA), compliance is sporadic. According to one local environmental officer, enforcement is weak and easily evaded. 

“Industries are either bypassing treatment plants or discharging waste at night to evade inspections,” said a local environmental officer who requested anonymity.

The consequences are stark: depleted oxygen levels, dead fish, and the frequent appearance of algal blooms that choke out aquatic life. 

The ripple effects extend beyond the fishing sector. Lakefront tourism has declined as polluted, foul-smelling shorelines repel visitors. 

Public health risks are increasing, especially in communities that rely on the lake for drinking and bathing water. Real estate developments near the lake have slowed, eroded by the environmental deterioration. 

To rescue the lake, stakeholders are calling for coordinated intervention.

Proposals include mandatory wastewater treatment for all industries, real-time pollution monitoring, and tougher penalties for environmental violations.  

Public-private partnerships are being suggested to rehabilitate wetlands and riparian zones that act as natural filters. Communities are also urged to participate in waste management and pollution reporting.

The Ministry of Environment and Forestry has acknowledged the scale of the crisis and pledged enhanced surveillance. However, critics argue that current efforts lack urgency and cohesion. 

Lake Victoria is more than a body of water—it’s a vital economic and environmental lifeline. Its decline threatens food security, household incomes, and regional trade.