TIFA: Only 38% of Kenyans believe United Opposition will back a single candidate in 2027
By Cy Muganda, December 23, 2025A new opinion poll has revealed that Kenyans are sceptical about the opposition’s ability to unite behind a single presidential candidate in the 2027 elections, with only just over a third expressing confidence in such unity.
According to the latest TIFA Research survey released on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, only 38% of Kenyans consider it “very likely” that opposition leaders wanting to defeat President William Ruto will unite to support a single presidential candidate.
Divided opinions
The survey revealed that Kenyans are deeply divided on the prospects of opposition unity, with opinions spread across different likelihood levels.
According to the report, 27% of respondents view opposition unity as “somewhat likely,” while 26% consider it “not very likely,” and 9% are unsure about the possibility.
“Kenyans are cautiously optimistic—but deeply divided—about the opposition’s ability to unite behind a single presidential candidate in 2027,” TIFA stated in its analysis.
The polling firm noted that voters are watching behaviour rather than declarations.
“Alliances will only be believed once formalised,” TIFA added.
Political alignment influences expectations
The survey also found a clear correlation between attitudes toward the broad-based government (BBG) and expectations about opposition unity.
Those who oppose the broad-based government are somewhat more optimistic about unity prospects than its supporters, with 45% of BBG opponents viewing opposition unity as “very likely” compared to 33% of BBG supporters.
“Such a contrast, however modest, again appears to be influenced by ‘wishful thinking,” TIFA observed in the report.
Among respondents with no opinion on the broad-based government, only 18% consider opposition unity “very likely,” while 38% are unsure about the prospects.
Challenges for 2027 opposition strategy
TIFA noted in its concluding comments that the question made no distinction between an agreement to back a single candidate in the general election and potential unity in the event of a second-round, run-off contest.
“One thing seems clear, however: that in Raila’s ‘absence’ both ODM leaders and followers will be freer to ‘make up their own minds’ about what party/coalition/presidential candidate to support,” the polling firm stated.
The poll was conducted between November 10 and 17, 2025, interviewing 2,053 randomly selected Kenyan adults across all 47 counties with a margin of error of ±2.16%.