A survey has revealed a close split among Kenyans regarding whether the demise of Raila Odinga would help or hamper President William Ruto’s reelection prospects in the 2027 elections.

A survey conducted and released by TIFA on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, demonstrated that 41% of Kenyans believe that Raila’s passing will make it more difficult for President Ruto to be re-elected in 2027.

30 per cent of those polled believe the death had made it easier for Ruto to be elected in 2027, while 18 per cent and 10 per cent gave a ‘No difference’ and ‘Not sure’ response, respectively.

The figure, though not an outright majority, was particularly interesting in the Nyanza region in Raila’s home area, where nearly twice as many hold this pessimistic view (40% vs. 25%).

Regionally, most optimism regarding his prospects as a consequence of Raila’s passing is found among residents of Western and Nairobi (38% and 36%, respectively).

The most pessimistic response was recorded among the residents of the Mt. Kenya and South Rift zones (56% and 52%, respectively).

Nairobi County also polled a close split: 39 per cent believed Ruto’s chances have been made difficult by Raila’s passing, in relation to 36 per cent who see his reelection as being made easier.

According to the pollster, the national survey conducted between 10 and 17 November 2025 also revealed that even after the death of the former opposition veteran, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party still occupies more political space on the political chessboard.

The Orange faction leads at 20 per cent against the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 16 per cent.

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