A new opinion poll has revealed deep divisions within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) over the 2027 presidential race, with only a small minority of party supporters backing President William Ruto as their preferred candidate.

According to the latest TIFA Research survey released on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, merely 19% of ODM supporters want the party to choose and support Ruto as its candidate if he joins ODM and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA)/Kenya Kwanza coalition has no candidate.

Split choices

The survey highlighted sharp divisions among ODM supporters on the party’s 2027 presidential strategy, with preferences spread across four different options.

A clear plurality of 34% want ODM to “choose and support some current ODM leader as the candidate,” making it the most popular choice among party followers.

Another 20% prefer the party to “help choose and support another Azimio-Opposition leader as the candidate,” while nearly a quarter (24%) believe ODM should “support no one but leave it to ODM voters to make their own choice.”

“However comfortable most ODM leaders – especially their elected leaders and senior government officials serving in the Kenya Kwanza government – appear to be, only a modest minority of the Orange party’s supporters appear committed to backing President Ruto for a second term,” TIFA stated in its analysis.

The poll, conducted between November 10 and 17, 2025, interviewed 2,053 randomly selected Kenyan adults across all 47 counties with a margin of error of ±2.16%.